Stock Market Outlook for February 12, 2026
Manufacturing Is Rising as the Consumer Fades
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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European Equity Fund, Inc. (NYSE:EEA) Seasonal Chart
iShares MSCI France ETF (NYSE:EWQ) Seasonal Chart
SPDR EURO STOXX 50 ETF (NYSE:FEZ) Seasonal Chart
BMO Low Volatility International Equity ETF (TSE:ZLI.TO) Seasonal Chart
Mercury General Corp. (NYSE:MCY) Seasonal Chart
Surge Energy Inc. (TSE:SGY.TO) Seasonal Chart
Ecolab, Inc. (NYSE:ECL) Seasonal Chart
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
Note: Ahead of the long weekend in both the US and Canada, we are going to take a few days to unwind following what has been a busy start to the year for us amidst the annual database refresh. We will be back on Tuesday, after the holiday closure on Monday, with our weekly chart books update. Have a great long weekend!
The Markets
Stocks traded mixed for a second day as investors showed a muted reaction to January’s Non-Farm Payroll report. The S&P 500 Index was essentially unchanged, once again reacting to the cap that has been imposed on the benchmark around 7,000. A slight negative skew remains with highs fixed around aforementioned resistance and lower-lows recorded since the year began. Nothing extreme has developed, yet, and the benchmark remains within arm’s reach of the all-time high charted less than two weeks ago. Threats remain for a downside resolution to 6730, or the mid-December lows, particularly through the period of seasonal weakness for stocks that is average later in February. The character of the market seems to have shifted where levels of resistance (at least on this tech heavy benchmark) are holding greater weight than levels of support. Looking to trim equity exposure in this backdrop, until resolved, has become prudent, pulling back the elevated levels of exposure that were held through the Santa Claus rally period and into the first month of the year, bracing for the kind of volatility that is average later in February. In the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that we manage for clients at CastleMoore, we have taken action to align with the risks that are creeping into the market ahead of the average mid-February peak in stocks, but, we have not been enticed, yet, to abandon our pro-cyclical and commodity oriented stance that has been flourishing this year. Themes in our chart books to either Accumulate or Avoid continue to gear towards the trends that are working and intact.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Market Structure: Stalled Beneath Resistance
- Employment Report: Better Headline, Weaker Trend
- Government & Private Employment
- Manufacturing Renaissance Theme
- Consumer: The Pressure Point
- Financials: Cracks Emerging
- Defensive Balance: Health Care
- Portfolio Strategy
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Sentiment on Wednesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.84.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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