Stock Market Outlook for February 25, 2026
The Equity Market Is Holding—But Certain Segments of the Economy are Flashing Stress
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Mueller Water Products Inc. (NYSE:MWA) Seasonal Chart
AirBoss of America Corp. (TSE:BOS.TO) Seasonal Chart
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (NYSE:AEM) Seasonal Chart
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
The Markets
Stocks recovered on Tuesday as investors sought to neutralize portfolios ahead of the State of the Union address and the release of earnings from Nvidia (NVDA) after Wednesday’s closing bell. The S&P 500 Index closed with a gain of just over three-quarters of one percent, taking another swing at resistance at the 20-day moving average (~6905) that has been derived in recent days. Horizontal resistance at 6900 remains an important pivot point and the inability of the benchmark to sustain levels above this threshold in recent days increases the likelihood that we see a downside resolution to our target of 6730, or the mid-December lows, during this normally weak timeframe in the equity market. Levels of resistance continue to show evidence of holding greater weight than support. Looking to trim equity exposure in this backdrop, until resolved, has become prudent, pulling back the elevated levels of exposure that were held through the Santa Claus rally period and into the first month of the year, bracing for the kind of volatility that is average at this time of year. In the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that we manage for clients at CastleMoore, we have taken action to align with the risks that were creeping into the market ahead of this average mid-February peak in stocks, but, we have not been enticed, yet, to abandon our pro-cyclical and commodity oriented stance that has become reinvigorated again in recent days. Themes in our chart books to either Accumulate or Avoid continue to be appropriately dialed in to the trends that are working and intact.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Market Action: Rally Into Resistance
- Financials Flash Warning Signal
- Gamma Exposure (GEX) Expressing Caution
- Housing: Recessionary Echoes Emerging
- Big Picture Themes
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Sentiment on Tuesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.85.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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