Stock Market Outlook for February 26, 2026
S&P 500 Reclaims 6,900 as Tech Surges—But Is the Breakout Real?
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (NYSE:VGK) Seasonal Chart
Outdoor Holding Company (NASD:POWW) Seasonal Chart
Emera Inc. (NYSE:EMA) Seasonal Chart
iShares Europe ETF (NYSE:IEV) Seasonal Chart
Entergy Corp Hldg Co. (NYSE:ETR) Seasonal Chart
BMO International Dividend ETF (TSE:ZDI.TO) Seasonal Chart
Ardmore Shipping Corp. (NYSE:ASC) Seasonal Chart
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
The Markets
The S&P 500 Index jumped on Wednesday as traders raced into Technology stocks ahead of the release of earnings from Nvidia (NVDA) after the closing bell. End of month portfolio rebalancing is also suspected to have been a factor in this late month positivity. The large-cap benchmark closed with a gain of just over eight-tenths of one percent, moving above the important 6900 pivot point that we have highlighted in our reporting; the gap higher around this threshold pegs a point of short-term support that will be scrutinized through the days ahead given that a failure around this zone would increase the likelihood of a downside resolution to our target of 6730, or the mid-December lows, during this normally weak timeframe in the equity market. While optimistic that this barrier that the benchmark has flipped around for the past couple of months has been violated again, it would be premature to conclude that the market has moved out of this phase where levels of resistance hold greater weight than support. In the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that we manage for clients at CastleMoore, we continue to balance the near-term risk-reward in the market appropriately, barbelling low volatility plays with pro-cyclical/commodity oriented bets. Themes in our chart books to either Accumulate or Avoid continue to be appropriately dialed in to the trends that are working and intact.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Market Break Above 6,900 — But Caution Remains
- Technology Attempting a Comeback
- Software Showing Early Stabilization
- Bitcoin: Oversold Bounce, Not a Bottom Yet
- Barbell Approach Still Working
- Energy Backdrop Still Constructive
- Big Picture Themes
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Sentiment on Wednesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.78.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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