The S&P 500 Index has averaged a return of 1.0% in March with a gain frequency of 64%.

Stock Market Outlook for March 2, 2026

The S&P 500 Index has averaged a return of 1.0% in March with a gain frequency of 64%.

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

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Quest Diagnostics Inc. (NYSE:DGX) Seasonal Chart

Novartis A G (NYSE:NVS) Seasonal Chart

iShares MSCI Kokusai ETF (NYSE:TOK) Seasonal Chart

Vanguard International Dividend Appreciation ETF (NASD:VIGI) Seasonal Chart

iShares Global Utilities ETF (NYSE:JXI) Seasonal Chart

iShares MSCI Germany ETF (NYSE:EWG) Seasonal Chart

Firstenergy Corp. (NYSE:FE) Seasonal Chart

National Grid Group (NYSE:NGG) Seasonal Chart

Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.

The Markets

Stocks closed down on Friday as traders quickly sold into the very recent strength in the technology and financial sectors amidst mounting AI related concerns. The S&P 500 Index ended lower by just over four-tenths of one percent, continuing to swing around the important 6900 pivot point that we have highlighted in our reporting; failure around this zone would increase the likelihood of a downside resolution to our target of 6730, or the mid-December lows, during this normally weak timeframe in the equity market. While the short-term trend of the market is flat, capped by resistance at 7,000 and supported by levels around 6,780, an ultra-short-term view is showing higher-highs and higher-lows over the past week and a half. There is a suggestion of a flagging pattern as investors just meander around the flat-line (6900), not wanting to make the big swings above and below the mid-point level to the prevailing range. Traders are looking for a catalyst. In the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that we manage for clients at CastleMoore, we continue to balance the near-term risk-reward in the market appropriately, barbelling low volatility plays with pro-cyclical/commodity oriented bets, both sides of which showed strength during the Friday session amidst the technology and financial driven selloff. Themes in our chart books to either Accumulate or Avoid continue to be appropriately dialed in to the trends that are working and intact.

Looking ahead, over the past five decades, the S&P 500 Index has averaged a return of 1.0% in the third month of the year with a gain frequency of 64%. Returns have ranged from a loss of 12.5% in March of 2020 to a gain of 9.7% in March of 2000. The average pattern for the month over this five decade span shows a rather consistent rise in prices throughout the entire period as values get pinned into the end of the quarter. We provide more insight in our just released monthly report for March.

Just Released…

Our monthly report for March is out, providing you with everything that you need to know to navigate the market through the month(s) ahead.

Highlights in this report include:

Equity market tendencies in the month of March
Still bullish signals heading into the new month, despite the threat of a near-term rise in volatility
Strong January performance for Industrial Production
Cold Temperatures, Hot Demand
Manufacturers optimistic heading into the spring ramp
Normal change in Jobless Claims early into the year
Barbelling Core-Cyclical exposure with Interest Rate Sensitive Segments
Spring is the time for Real Estate
Low Volatility in Vogue
Evolving Defensive Tilt
Going to Waste
Growth no longer Growing
Risks from the evolution of Artificial Intelligence materializing in the Financial Sector
VIX has yet to cross the threshold to indicate panic
Emerging Markets
Our list of all segments of the market to either Accumulate or Avoid, along with relevant ETFs
Positioning for the months ahead
Sector Reviews and Ratings
Stocks that have Frequently Gained in the Month of March
Notable Stocks and ETFs Entering their Period of Strength in March

Subscribers can look for this 110-page report in their inbox and in the report archive.

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With the new month upon us and as we celebrate the release of our monthly report for March, today we release our screen of all of the stocks that have gained in every March over their trading history. While we at Equity Clock focus on a three-pronged approach (seasonal, technical, and fundamental analysis) to gain exposure to areas of the market that typically perform well over intermediate (2 to 6 months) timeframes, we know that stocks that have a 100% frequency of success for a particular month is generally of interest to those pursuing a seasonal investment strategy. Below are the results:

And how about those securities that have never gained in this third month of the year, here they are:

*Note: None of the results highlighted above have the 20 years of data that we like to see in order to accurately gauge the annual recurring, seasonal influences impacting an investment, therefore the reliability of the results should be questioned. We present the above list as an example of how our downloadable spreadsheet available to yearly subscribers can be filtered. For a more extensive list of high frequency (70% ) gainers for the month of March, please refer to our monthly report.

As part of a new offering to portray how seasonality can be used in everyday purchases, today we are diving into a list of categories that are ideal consumer buys in the month of March. A number of categories have ties to the markdowns of excess inventory that exist after the winter season, as well as shifting temperatures heading into the warmer spring period. Categories that consumers can seek to take advantage of in the third month of the year include:

Winter and apparel clearance

Winter coats and jackets: Retailers push out remaining parkas, puffers, and heavy jackets with 50–70%+ off, often the lowest prices of the season.
Winter boots and cold‑weather gear: Sweaters, boots, gloves, and other cold‑weather apparel get deep markdowns as stores switch to spring/summer lines.
Ski and snowboard equipment: End‑of‑season clearance on skis, boards, and related gear as the snow season winds down.

Groceries and household consumables

Frozen foods: March is “Frozen Food Month” in many markets, so pizzas, frozen meals, veggies, fruit, and ice cream often go on aggressive promotion with coupons and multipack deals.

Fresh Fruit: Increased supply from late-winter harvests, imports, and peak/post-peak production in warmer North American regions boosts availability of fruits, thereby driving prices down during this transition period into the spring

Tea: Post winter demand for hot beverages eases as the warmer weather approaches and grocery stores tend to place these items on promotion.

Electricity: While many rely on a set tiered pricing of electricity from their utility provider, the warmer spring weather tends to reduce reliance on top-tier rates during the daytime hours to heat homes, thereby leading to a reduction in electricity bills in this transition month into the spring.

Cleaning supplies: Spring‑cleaning themes drive sales on all‑purpose cleaners, bathroom and glass cleaners, wipes, and similar products.

Paper products: Toilet paper, paper towels, and facial tissue are frequently discounted alongside cleaning promos.

Dental Care Services: Many dental associations release updated fee guides on April 1st, allowing dentists to adjust for inflation and costs. March provides the final opportunity to take advantage of the current fee guidelines.

Dairy and related products: Dairy prices often dip in March due to the start of the seasonal “spring flush” when milk production ramps up across North America

CPI - Dairy and related products Seasonal Chart

Travel and seasonal transition items

Travel gear: Luggage and travel accessories see sales in March as people start planning spring and summer trips.
Spring footwear and outerwear: Early deals on sandals and lighter jackets appear as retailers entice shoppers into the new season.

Miscellaneous March deals

Denim/jeans: Many chains do March denim clearance, often 60–75% off, to make room for summer apparel.
Craft machines and supplies: March is marketed as National Craft Month; Cricut machines and accessories sometimes drop to near Black‑Friday pricing at big retailers.
Perfume and cologne: Leftover Valentine’s fragrance sets may be marked down after February’s gifting rush.

Investor sentiment on Friday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.85.