Monday’s rally/reversal could have easily represented a washout event worthy to add risk into, however, more stabilization may be needed before increasing intermediate-term risk exposure in portfolios.

Stock Market Outlook for March 10, 2026

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

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Immersion Corp. (NASD:IMMR) Seasonal Chart

Cenovus Energy Inc. (NYSE:CVE) Seasonal Chart

Texas Pacific Land Tr (NYSE:TPL) Seasonal Chart

iShares MSCI United Kingdom Small-Cap ETF (AMEX:EWUS) Seasonal Chart

Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.

The Markets

An extraordinary reversal in the price of oil following comments from Donald Trump signalling that the Iran war was near an end sent stocks higher on Monday. The S&P 500 Index ended up by eight-tenths of one percent, closing a downside gap that was charted following the opening bell around our previous target for the benchmark at 6730. The index continues to trade below the important 6900 pivot point that we have highlighted in our reporting and an ultra-short-term trend of lower-highs and lower-lows remains intact. Levels of resistance overhead remain heavy and, while there were a lot of positive developments that align with the end of the period of volatility for stocks (eg. significant reversal in the Volatility Index VIX) on Monday, it would be premature to conclude, with confidence, that we have exited this normally volatile phase for stocks between the middle of February and the middle of March. The 100-day moving average for the large-cap benchmark (6839) that was providing significant support remains broken and the 150-day moving average (6739) has been cracked following Monday’s price action; The 200-day moving averages (6586) remains a risk and it is difficult to say it got close enough to the long-term level of support on Monday to provide the all-clear to intermediate-term (multi-month) allocations. Ultimately, we received a strong argument of a washout event on Monday where weak hands were shaken loose of holdings, something that we were on the lookout for in order to ramp up risk exposure in portfolios again, but there is still some room here to let the dust settle to assure that we are stepping in to a stable market backdrop. In the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that we manage for clients at CastleMoore, we continue to balance the near-term risk-reward in the market, barbelling low volatility plays with pro-cyclical/commodity oriented bets, an approach that continues align with the trends in the market. Our desire is to ramp up risk exposure again at more favourable levels for the strength that is normal of equity markets in late March and through the month of April. Subscribers can view the themes in our chart books to either Accumulate or Avoid that are working and intact.

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Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:

Market Overview

Technical Outlook

Portfolio Strategy

Seasonal Market Perspective

Macro Indicators to Watch

Sector Positioning

This Week’s Ratings Changes and our list of all segments of the market to either Accumulate or Avoid

Commodity Market Developments

Inflation and Commodity Strategy

Other Notes

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