Stock Market Outlook for March 11, 2026
If you like Software as a trade, you should really like the longer-term opportunity in this other segment of the Technology sector.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Dropbox, Inc. (NASD:DBX) Seasonal Chart
Franklin FTSE Australia ETF (AMEX:FLAU) Seasonal Chart
MomentumShares International Quantitative Momentum ETF (NASD:IMOM) Seasonal Chart
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
The Markets
Continued volatility in the price of oil had equity markets wobbling on Tuesday as the uncertainty over the state of the Strait of Hormuz remains high. The S&P 500 Index gave up its earlier gains to close down by just over two-tenths of one percent. The index continues to trade below the important 6900 pivot point that we have highlighted in our reporting and an ultra-short-term trend of lower-highs and lower-lows remains intact. Levels of resistance overhead remain heavy and it remains premature to conclude, with confidence, that we have exited this normally volatile phase for stocks between the middle of February and the middle of March. The 100-day moving average for the large-cap benchmark (6841) that was providing significant support remains broken and the 150-day moving average (6742) has been cracked following Monday’s price action; the 200-day moving average (6591) remains a risk and it is difficult to say it got close enough to the long-term level of support on Monday to provide the all-clear to intermediate-term (multi-month) allocations. Ultimately, we received a strong argument of a washout event on Monday where weak hands were shaken loose of holdings, something that we were on the lookout for in order to ramp up risk exposure in portfolios again, but we still need to let the dust settle to assure that we are stepping in to a stable market backdrop. In the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that we manage for clients at CastleMoore, we continue to balance the near-term risk-reward in the market, barbelling low volatility plays with pro-cyclical/commodity oriented bets, an approach that continues align with the trends in the market. Our desire is to ramp up risk exposure again at more favourable levels for the strength that is normal of equity markets in late March and through the month of April. Subscribers can view the themes in our chart books to either Accumulate or Avoid that are working and intact.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Market Overview
- Portfolio Strategy
- Financial Sector Warning Signal
- Small-Caps: Key Risk Sentiment Indicator
- Technology Sector Positioning: A look at the Software and Semiconductor industries
- Alternative to playing the bounce in Software stocks
- Housing Market Developments
- Housing Market Risk
- Core Investment Themes
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Sentiment on Tuesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended close to neutral at 0.95.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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