Stock Market Outlook for March 12, 2026
The market and the economy remain hinged on the price of Oil.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Obsidian Energy Ltd. (AMEX:OBE) Seasonal Chart
Kelt Exploration Ltd. (TSE:KEL.TO) Seasonal Chart
SM Energy Co. (NYSE:SM) Seasonal Chart
Ring Energy, Inc. (AMEX:REI) Seasonal Chart
Enbridge, Inc. (NYSE:ENB) Seasonal Chart
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
The Markets
Markets remained on edge during the Wednesday session as traders monitored developments pertaining to the Strait of Hormuz. The S&P 500 Index closed down by just less than a tenth of one percent, charting a rather indecisive doji candlestick on the day. The index continues to trade below the important 6900 pivot point that we have highlighted in our reporting and an ultra-short-term trend of lower-highs and lower-lows remains intact. Levels of resistance overhead remain heavy and it remains premature to conclude, with confidence, that we have exited this normally volatile phase for stocks between the middle of February and the middle of March. The 100-day moving average for the large-cap benchmark (6842) that was providing significant support remains broken and the 150-day moving average (6745) has been cracked following Monday’s price action; the 200-day moving average (6596) remains a risk and it is difficult to say it got close enough to the long-term level of support on Monday to provide the all-clear to intermediate-term (multi-month) allocations. Ultimately, we received a strong argument of a washout event on Monday where weak hands were shaken loose of holdings, something that we were on the lookout for in order to ramp up risk exposure in portfolios again, but we still need to let the dust settle to assure that we are stepping in to a stable market backdrop. In the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that we manage for clients at CastleMoore, we continue to balance the near-term risk-reward in the market, barbelling low volatility plays with pro-cyclical/commodity oriented bets, an approach that continues align with the trends in the market. Our desire is to ramp up risk exposure again at more favourable levels for the strength that is normal of equity markets in late March and through the month of April. Subscribers can view the themes in our chart books to either Accumulate or Avoid that are working and intact.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Market Outlook & Technical Setup
- Energy Markets & Oil Supply Risks
- Energy Demand & Seasonal Dynamics
- Inflation & CPI Trends
- Food Inflation & Agriculture Trade
- Insurance Sector Weakness
- Consumer Pressure & Discretionary Weakness
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Sentiment on Wednesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.93.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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