Stock Market Outlook for March 13, 2026
We added to our Energy exposure during this seasonally strong time of year for the commodities and the stocks.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
Subscribers Click on the relevant link to view the full profile. Not a subscriber? Signup here.
Target Hospitality Corp. (NASD:TH) Seasonal Chart
Phenom Resources Corp. (TSXV:PHNM.V) Seasonal Chart
Euronet Services, Inc. (NASD:EEFT) Seasonal Chart
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
The Markets
Markets were rattled on Thursday as an escalation of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz sent oil prices soaring and equity prices (many of which were holding up in recent days) lower. The S&P 500 Index closed down by 1.52%, reaching back to the year-to-date lows that were charted on Monday (intraday). The index continues to trade below the important 6900 pivot point that we have highlighted in our reporting and an ultra-short-term trend of lower-highs and lower-lows remains intact. Levels of resistance overhead remain heavy and it remains premature to conclude, with confidence, that we have exited this normally volatile phase for stocks between the middle of February and the middle of March. The 100-day moving average for the large-cap benchmark (6842) that was providing significant support remains broken and now the the 150-day moving average (6747) has been taken out again; our focus has been on the 200-day moving average (6600), which is not all that far away. A band between 6500 and 6600 should cause the bears to think twice about pressing negative bets, in the short-term, but, if this zone does break, we will have a longer-term topping pattern on the chart that stretches back many months to contend with. The speculative side of us (which we are not acting on, rather just entertaining) suggests that we hold the zone of support into the period of seasonal positivity for equity markets through during the end of March and the month of April, but ongoing strains ahead threatens the longer-term technical profile once the offseason for stocks gets underway in late April/early May. In the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that we manage for clients at CastleMoore, we continue to balance the near-term risk-reward in the market, barbelling low volatility plays with pro-cyclical/commodity oriented bets, an approach that continues align with the trends in the market. Our desire is to still ramp up risk exposure again at more favourable levels for the strength that is normal of equity markets in late March and through the month of April, playing the tail-end of the best six months of the year for stocks. It is what the market may deliver beyond this traditionally positive timeframe that is up for debate, but we have some ideas. Subscribers can view the themes in our chart books to either Accumulate or Avoid that are working and intact.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Market Outlook & Technical Risks
- Technology Sector Weakening
- Energy: The Next Major Seasonal Opportunity
- Jobless Claims Remain Stable
- Trade Trends & Tariff Impact
- Export Strength Reveals Sector Winners
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for March 13
Not signed up yet? Subscribe now to receive full access to all of the research and analysis that we publish
Sentiment on Thursday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.89 (despite the shape decline on the day).
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
| Sponsored By... |
|
