Equity Clock

Stock Market Outlook for April 6, 2026

Market Rebound Meets Resistance.

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

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Manchester United Ltd. (NYSE:MANU) Seasonal Chart

First Trust Dow Jones Internet Index Fund (NYSE:FDN) Seasonal Chart

Evertec, Inc. (NYSE:EVTC) Seasonal Chart

NPK International Inc. (NYSE:NPKI) Seasonal Chart

Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. (NYSE:LYV) Seasonal Chart

M&T Bank Corp. (NYSE:MTB) Seasonal Chart

Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.

Note: Friday is a holiday (Good Friday) and, with markets closed on this day, our next report will be released on Monday. Happy Easter!

The Markets

Perhaps to the shock of many, stocks closed higher on Friday as traders shook off concerns pertaining to surging oil prices.  The S&P 500 Index added just over a tenth of one percent, continuing to move higher from levels around the lower limit of the declining trend channel that has been playing out over the past month.  An alleviation of the parabolic decline from recent days is being offered.  The benchmark continues to push against the upper limit of its declining span, as well as horizontal resistance from the past couple of weeks, around 6620, reaction to which has been observed; the benchmark is at a make or break point to the rebound that has elevated stocks into the start of this seasonally strong month of April. A short-term trend of lower-highs and lower-lows remains intact and major daily moving averages continue to provide formidable hurdles for the benchmark to overcome in order to sustain the recovery through the weeks ahead.  Market participants are watching the 200-day moving average (currently at 6644) like a hawk, emphasizing that “nothing good happens below this level.” However, with this negativity that investors have adopted around this important technical hurdle, we cannot dismiss the prospect of a contrarian move above the threshold that shakes the negative sentiment of many and draws traders back in before what could be another round of weakness in equity markets later this spring (aligned with how stocks perform in mid-term election years under a new presidential party).  In the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that we manage for clients at CastleMoore, we have been playing the contrarian after rotating away from our low volatility posture and adding to risk exposure a week and a half ago for the seasonally strong window that runs through the next two to four weeks.  The conflict in Iran remains a wildcard and we are running down our cues that would warrant a more defensive posture in risk assets, but the net of all developments following the action from the past couple of weeks between technicals, fundamentals, and seasonals for the near-term continue to provide the edge to an upside bias (and it has been working).  Subscribers can view the updated list of themes in our chart books to either Accumulate or Avoid that we continue to gear portfolios towards.

Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:

• Market Setup: Rebound Meets Major Resistance
• Short-Term Bullish, Intermediate-Term Cautious
  Technical Signals: Early Signs of Stabilization in the Broad Equity Market
• Consumer Weakness Intensifying
• Manufacturing Outlook Losing Momentum
• Auto Sector Stocks (Tesla): Cracks Emerging
• Energy & Natural Gas: Opportunity with Volatility
• Sentiment: Bearish Positioning is Building

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Sentiment on Thursday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bearish at 1.04. 

Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

• No significant earnings scheduled for today.

S&P 500 Index

TSE Composite

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