Stock Market Outlook for April 17, 2026
Industrial activity softened in March, amid the Iran conflict, but manufacturers are remaining very optimistic.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Stock Highlight: |
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ImmuCell Corp. (NASD:ICCC) Seasonal Chart |
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Ohio Valley Banc Corp. (NASD:OVBC) Seasonal Chart
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
The Markets
The V-recovery in stocks continues, elevating major market benchmarks in the US (S&P 500, Nasdaq) further into record high territory. The S&P 500 Index closed up by around a quarter of one percent, pushing further above the previous peak that was charted in January around 7,000. A number of gaps remain unfilled below, including the big one between 6620 and 6740, but, ultimately, the character of the market has changed where levels of resistance hold less weight than levels of support. A small upside gap opened on Tuesday between 6885 and 6905 is the first zone to watch for reaction as potential support on a retracement/digestion of recent gains. Momentum indicators are showing every early signs of upside exhaustion, but there is no actionable catalyst to shift portfolio exposure, yet, based on the potential maturing of the recovery off of the end of March low. In the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio (which is strongly higher YTD and exceeding its high watermark that was charted in February) that we manage for clients at CastleMoore, we continue to be fully exposed to risk (stocks) after flipping from our low volatility stance around the end of March and our performance is benefitting. The conflict in Iran remains a wildcard and we are running down our cues that would warrant a more defensive posture in risk assets. Subscribers can view the updated list of themes in our chart books to either Accumulate or Avoid that we continue to gear portfolios towards.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Market Trend & Structure
- Early Warning Signs (But Not Actionable Yet)
- Rotation Emerging (Cyclicals → Growth)
- Industrial & Manufacturing Signal (Mixed / Turning)
- Where Strength Still Exists
- Sentiment vs Reality (Key Divergence)
- Labour Market (Still Supportive)
- Big Risk Factors
- Big Picture Takeaway
- Portfolio Implications
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Sentiment on Thursday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.71.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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