Leaning into Oil and scrutinizing Gold amidst escalating geopolitical tensions.

Stock Market Outlook for July 9, 2026

Leaning into Oil and scrutinizing Gold amidst escalating geopolitical tensions.

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

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Stock Highlight:
Alimentation Couche-Tard, Inc. (TSE:ATD.TO) Seasonal Chart	Optimal holding period from July 9th to November 20th The stock moved above a multi-year basing pattern with its recent breakout above resistance at $85; Stop loss appropriate at the 20-week moving average around $81. Revenue, Net Income, and Free Cash Flow are showing steady year-over-year gains

Cronos Group, Inc. (TSE:CRON.TO) Seasonal Chart

ValueShares US Quantitative Value ETF (NASD:QVAL) Seasonal Chart

SPDR S&P Dividend ETF (NYSE:SDY) Seasonal Chart

CBL & Associates Properties, Inc. (NYSE:CBL) Seasonal Chart

BMO Canadian High Dividend Covered Call ETF (TSE:ZWC.TO) Seasonal Chart

General Dynamics Corp. (NYSE:GD) Seasonal Chart

Royal Bank Of Canada (NYSE:RY) Seasonal Chart

Marcus Corp. (NYSE:MCS) Seasonal Chart

iShares S&P/TSX Capped Financials Index ETF (TSE:XFN.TO) Seasonal Chart

CBOE Global Markets Inc. (AMEX:CBOE) Seasonal Chart

Pfizer, Inc. (NYSE:PFE) Seasonal Chart

Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.

The Markets

The summer rally period in the equity market received a bit of a “gut-check” on Wednesday following headlines that the ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran is over. The S&P 500 Index shed less than three-tenths of one percent, slipping back below declining trendline resistance from the month of June that was cracked at the start of the week. Another gap around 7480 highlights an important pivot point for investors in the short-term: bearish if below, bullish if above. Support on the daily chart is being maintained at 20 and 50-day moving averages (~7420), which have converged on one another in a bearish manner. Daily momentum indicators have curled higher in recent days, triggering near-term buy signals that still align nicely with the start of the summer rally phase; MACD crossed above its signal line in what is a fresh buy signal following the sell trigger that was recorded in the middle of May. In the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that we manage for clients at CastleMoore, we remain positioned for this summer rally phase that began on June 27th (S&P 500 Index is still strongly higher, above the seasonal norm, since that point). Following a first half performance in the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that was well ahead of our own benchmark (as well as all major equity benchmarks in the market), we are still anticipating strength for the start of the second half of the year, but we are scrutinizing the risks accordingly that have abruptly escalated with the increase in geopolitical tensions. The start of earnings season provides some cover to the headline threats that, admittedly, could spiral out of control if calmer heads fail to prevail. Subscribers can view what we are targeting in our list of market segments to either Accumulate or Avoid.

Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:

Summer rally remains intact

The biggest market risks are re-emerging

VIX is flashing caution

Energy as a hedge

Scrutinizing Gold against trendline support

Bonds remain trapped in a holding pattern

Consumer remains one of the weakest areas of the market and economy

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Sentiment on Wednesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.90.

The results are in: Seasonal Advantage Portfolio a Winner in H1

The results are in and, during the first half of the year, the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that we manage for clients at CastleMoore far exceeded the performance of any and all benchmarks that the strategy could be compared to, higher by 14.8% after fees. Do-it-yourself investors can follow along with our insight through our subscription service, but if you are looking for a fully managed approach, reach out to us and we can hook you up with a representative at CastleMoore to get you started.