Equity Clock

Stock Market Outlook for August 13, 2026

A tame CPI is allowing some of the seasonal trades that we favor at this time of year to flourish.

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

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Stock Highlight:
First Merchants Corp. (NASD:FRME) Seasonal Chart	Optimal holding period from August 13th to December 20th The stock remains within an intermediate-term rising trend and the breakout above horizontal resistance in the past few weeks around $42 proposes an upside target of $50 Revenue and Free Cash Flow saw a significant bump in the second quarter, fuelling above average performance that factors strongly in our approach

iShares India Index ETF (TSE:XID.TO) Seasonal Chart

Ameris Bancorp (NYSE:ABCB) Seasonal Chart

Shore Bancshares Inc. (NASD:SHBI) Seasonal Chart

Uranium Energy Corp. (AMEX:UEC) Seasonal Chart

Note: As a result of a prior commitment, there will be no report issued on Thursday.  Our next report (for Monday) will be sent out on Saturday and uploaded to the archive on Friday.

Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.

The Markets

A CPI report that was inline with expectations allowed stocks to get out of their short-term slump experienced in recent days.  The S&P 500 Index inched higher by around a quarter of one percent, continuing to hold above the consolidation span that the benchmark had been within since the start of June between 7250 and 7620; previous resistance at this upper threshold now turns into support.  A short-term bull-flag pattern continues to be charted, suggesting further upside in the near-term to be expected.  Implied resistance around 20 and 50-day moving averages (~7503) was broken almost two weeks ago, placing the ball in the bulls court heading into the start of the new month.  Daily momentum indicators remain on an upswing, moving above the declining path that had been charted since the end of May.  The technicals are providing all of the characteristics to be bullish of stocks.  In the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that we manage for clients at CastleMoore, we never made any changes in our allocations during the abnormal July weakness.  Following a first half performance in the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that was well ahead of our own benchmark (as well as all major equity benchmarks in the market), we have had a view to expect strength for the start of the second half of the year, aligning with the optimism that the manufacturing economy is expressing.  Our stance is now paying off.  Earnings season has provided the cover to the headline threats in the market and, ultimately, the positive intermediate-term trajectory of the market persists.  Subscribers can view what we are targeting in our list of market segments to either Accumulate or Avoid.

Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:

• US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the investment implications within
• Interest rates

Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for August 13

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Sentiment on Wednesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.81.

Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

S&P 500 Index

TSE Composite

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