Stock Market Outlook for August 25, 2026
Interjection in the Treasury Bond market boding well for Gold and Crypto, but no so much for the Banks.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Stock Highlight: |
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Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASD:COST) Seasonal Chart |
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Vital Farms Inc. (NASD:VITL) Seasonal Chart
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
The Markets
Ongoing weakness in the technology sector as funds rotate towards other sectors kept the broad equity market capped on Monday. The S&P 500 Index closed lower by just less than three-tenths of one percent, continuing to show initial reaction to the upper limit of the consolidation span between 7250 and 7620 that the benchmark broke out from in recent weeks; previous resistance at this upper threshold is being looked to as support. A short-term bull-flag pattern continues to be charted, suggesting further upside to be expected and the retracement towards aforementioned previous resistance at 7620 has alleviated the near-term froth that enticed profit-taking in recent days. The benchmark remains above 20 and 50-day moving averages (~7546), keeping the ball in the bulls court heading into the final days of August. Daily momentum indicators have been rolling over, but they are retaining characteristics of a bullish trend above their middle lines. In the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that we manage for clients at CastleMoore, we continue to hold an elevated exposure to stocks, aligning with the optimism that the manufacturing economy is expressing. The period of volatility in the equity market through the weeks ahead could start to impose some erratic results (as is presently being seen), but there is some leeway on the calendar before the peak period of weakness rolls around starting in the middle of September. Subscribers can view what we are targeting in our list of market segments to either Accumulate or Avoid.
Want to know which areas of the market to buy or sell? Our Weekly Chart Books have just been updated, providing a clear Accumulate, Avoid, or Neutral rating for currencies, cryptocurrencies, commodities, broad markets, and subsectors/industries of the market. Subscribers can login and click on the relevant links to access.
- Currencies
- Cryptocurrencies
- Commodities
- Major Benchmarks
- Sub-sectors / Industries
- ETFs: Bonds | Commodities | Equity Markets | Industries | Sectors
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Our weekly chart books update, along with our list of all segments of the market to either Accumulate or Avoid
- Other Notes
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for August 25
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Sentiment on Monday, as gauged by the put-call ratio ended bullish at 0.90.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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