Stock Market Outlook for September 4, 2026
A weak payroll report could be positive for stocks if it shifts focus in the market towards the employment component of the Fed’s mandate.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Stock Highlight: |
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Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE:XOM) Seasonal Chart |
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Park National Corp. (AMEX:PRK) Seasonal Chart
Argentina Lithium and Energy Corp. (TSXV:LIT.V) Seasonal Chart
Pulse Biosciences, Inc. (NASD:PLSE) Seasonal Chart
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
The Markets
An alleviation in the cost of borrowing allowed stocks to get off the floor on Thursday. The S&P 500 Index jumped by just over one percent, snapping back from support at the upper limit of the prior consolidation span between 7250 and 7620 that the benchmark broke out from at the start of August. A short-term bull-flag pattern remains intact, suggesting further upside to be expected. The 20-day moving average was briefly violated mid-week at (7710), but Thursday’s rally has retaken the important short-term hurdle. The backdrop continues to warrant a bullish tilt toward stocks, for now, heading further into what is often a volatile period for equity performance in the month of September. In the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that we manage for clients at CastleMoore, we continue to hold an elevated exposure to stocks, aligning with the optimism that the manufacturing economy is expressing. The period of volatility in the equity market is starting to impose some erratic results, but there is some leeway on the calendar before the peak period of weakness rolls around starting in the middle of September. Subscribers can view what we are targeting in our list of market segments to either Accumulate or Avoid.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Q’s holding support
- The leading indication Bitcoin is providing
- US Vehicle Sales
- Heavy Truck sales it the investment implications from the trend
- Weekly Jobless Claims and the health of the labor market
- A look ahead at what to expect from August’s Non-Farm Payroll report
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for September 4
Sentiment on Thursday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.79.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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