Stock Market Outlook for October 31, 2022
While everyone starts to discount the long-term potential of the Technology sector, the technicals are still pointing to an ongoing positive trend.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Invesco Dynamic Building & Construction ETF (NYSE:PKB) Seasonal Chart
Installed Building Products Inc. (NYSE:IBP) Seasonal Chart
iShares U.S. Industrials ETF (NYSE:IYJ) Seasonal Chart
Unitedhealth Group, Inc. (NYSE:UNH) Seasonal Chart
Analog Devices, Inc. (NASD:ADI) Seasonal Chart
First Trust Industrials/Producer Durables AlphaDEX Fund (NYSE:FXR) Seasonal Chart
Vanguard S&P Mid-Cap 400 Value ETF (NYSE:IVOV) Seasonal Chart
Xerox Holdings Corp. (NASD:XRX) Seasonal Chart
CIGNA Corp. (NYSE:CI) Seasonal Chart
Invesco Dynamic Pharmaceuticals ETF (NYSE:PJP) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks surged on Friday as a jump in shares of Apple (AAPL) following earnings helped to alleviate the overwhelming negative sentiment that has proliferated in recent days and weeks. The S&P 500 Index closed higher by just less than 2.5%, advancing firmly beyond intermediate resistance at the 50-day moving average and now intersecting with the declining 100-day moving average at 3903. The 20-day moving average remains in a position of short-term support at 3718. Momentum indicators are still pointing higher following the positive divergences that were charted through the middle of October, alerting us to the evidence of selling exhaustion in the market that allowed us to take on greater risk in the portfolio prior to this tremendous move higher in stocks that has now been realized. The strongest time of the year for stocks is underway, but we are not expecting a perfect trajectory higher over the next six months ahead given the degradation in the economy that continues to progress. We are benefitting presently from our increased risk exposure, but we remain willing and able to retrench when and if coincident indicators confirm the onset of a recession, an event that has an increased likelihood of occurring around the start of the new year.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Weekly look at the large-cap benchmark
- Mid-term election year tendencies for stocks
- The long-term trend of the technology sector
- Yield curve inversion and when you should be concerned about equity investments
- Canada Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for October 31
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Just released…
Our Monthly Outlook for November is out, providing you with everything to set you up for the month(s) ahead.
Highlights in this report include:
- Equity market tendencies in the month of November
- Fourth quarter performance for stocks following pronounced September declines
- First back-to-back monthly declines in Home Prices since January of 2019
- The Election Year Cycle for stocks
- Institutional managers underexposed to stocks into year-end, but will they take a bite?
- Concerns for retail ahead of the holiday season
- Shipping is slipping again
- Industrial production metrics holding up, but for how long
- Fed showing no success reining in inflationary pressures
- The correlation between wages and the effective Federal funds rate
- Out with rate sensitives and in with rate beneficiaries
- Job openings falling and layoffs jumping
- Wholesaler inventories still ballooning except for one segment of the economy
- Bonds
- US Dollar
- The rise of Bitcoin
- Breadth indicators rebounding from levels of significance
- Seasonal decline in volatility into the end of the year
- Time to shift focus to smaller cap stocks
- Positioning for the months ahead
- Sector Reviews and Ratings
- Stocks that have Frequently Gained in the Month of November
- Notable Stocks and ETFs Entering their Period of Strength in November
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or via the report archive at https://charts.equityclock.com/
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Sentiment on Friday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended slightly bullish at 0.92.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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