Stock Market Outlook for December 29, 2022
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Vanguard Total International Bond ETF (NASD:BNDX) Seasonal Chart
Western Asset Global High Income Fund Inc. (NYSE:EHI) Seasonal Chart
Invesco Municipal Income Opportunities Trust (NYSE:OIA) Seasonal Chart
iShares Treasury Floating Rate Bond ETF (AMEX:TFLO) Seasonal Chart
BMO Mid Provincial Bond Index ETF (TSE:ZMP.TO) Seasonal Chart
Halliburton Co. (NYSE:HAL) Seasonal Chart
Sturm Ruger & Co., Inc. (NYSE:RGR) Seasonal Chart
Barclays Plc (NYSE:BCS) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks struggled again during this notorious Santa Claus rally period as news released intraday indicated that travellers from China are required to show a negative COVID test before entering the US, reigniting concerns of what the impact of this virus will have on economic activity, both here and abroad. The S&P 500 Index closed lower by 1.20%, remaining within a tight consolidation range just below the 50-day moving average and horizontal support at 3900, both of which were broken in recent weeks. A significant convergence of the 20, 50, 100, and 150-day moving averages is becoming apparent at the aforementioned horizontal pivot point at 3900, which further ingrains the sensitivity of this market to this zone across multiple timeframes. The pattern charted over the past month resembles a bear-flag, which proposes a downside target back to the October low around 3500. The technicals heading into the new year continue to look threatening and there is not much on the fundamental side to point to as reason for optimism. The only thing that has prevented us from adopting an outright bearish stance across a broad range of investments is the fact that we remain in this seasonally positive timeframe, a period that tends to be more supportive of stocks than not. The benchmark remains in the zone of November’s upside gap between 3770 and 3860, a span that is keeping the benchmark afloat, for now, but it is becoming increasingly difficult to avoid selling, yet, after benefitting from the rebound in the market from the October low.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Our list of all segments of the market to either Accumulate or Avoid, along with the relevant ETF, should one exist
- The play on Bitcoin through the months ahead
- The change in Margin Debt in investment accounts and the largest decline in Credit Balances through this point in the year on record
- US New Home Sales
- Investor Sentiment
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for December 29
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Soon to be released…
We are busy placing the finishing touches on our monthly report for January, providing you with everything that you need to know for the month(s) ahead. Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox in the days ahead.
Sentiment on Wednesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended extremely bearish at 1.95.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
- No significant earnings scheduled for today.
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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