While spreads become increasingly negative at the long end of the yield curve, the shorter-end has actually narrowed since the year began.

Stock Market Outlook for March 2, 2023

While spreads become increasingly negative at the long end of the yield curve, the shorter-end has actually narrowed since the year began.

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

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iShares Core MSCI Europe ETF (AMEX:IEUR) Seasonal Chart

BMO Global Consumer Staples Hedged to CAD Index ETF (TSE:STPL.TO) Seasonal Chart

Ascent Industries Co. (NASD:ACNT) Seasonal Chart

OShares FTSE Europe Quality Dividend ETF (AMEX:OEUR) Seasonal Chart

SPDR S&P Dividend ETF (NYSE:SDY) Seasonal Chart

SPDR Dow Jones Global Real Estate ETF (NYSE:RWO) Seasonal Chart

iShares MSCI International Developed Momentum Factor ETF (AMEX:IMTM) Seasonal Chart

DTE Energy Co. (NYSE:DTE) Seasonal Chart

Fidelity MSCI Utilities Index ETF (AMEX:FUTY) Seasonal Chart

BMO Covered Call Utilities ETF (TSE:ZWU.TO) Seasonal Chart

CoStar Group, Inc. (NASD:CSGP) Seasonal Chart

Cousins Properties, Inc. (NYSE:CUZ) Seasonal Chart

Camden Property Trust (NYSE:CPT) Seasonal Chart

Firstenergy Corp. (NYSE:FE) Seasonal Chart

The Markets

Stocks struggled in the first session of March as the cost of borrowing jumped higher amidst an ongoing repricing in the bond market following stronger than expected economic datapoints for the month of January. The S&P 500 Index ended lower by around half of one percent, slipping back below the 50-day moving average and reaching towards the still declining 200-day moving average. So far, this long-term variable hurdle that was broken as resistance in the middle of January is remaining unviolated as a point of potential support and, if this is sustained, it would send a strong signal to the market. Traditionally, it is well known on Wall Street that nothing good happens below the 200-day moving average and if you can merely avoid periods when price is below this threshold, you can perform very well in investment portfolios. Confirmation of support at this long-term hurdle would start to pull up on the negative slope and help to solidify a backstop to this market for a sustainable trade higher in prices into the spring. For now, the trend of the market in the short-term, as gauged by the declining 20-day moving average, is still negative and momentum indicators remain on a sell signal, as triggered by the bearish MACD crossover two and a half weeks ago. We’ll be watching the reaction of the market closely around these major moving averages and, until then, a neutral bias remains warranted.

Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:

The rise of yields towards some important psychological levels and the narrowing of spreads at the shorter-end of the curve

The downfall of yield sensitive sectors and how to play this side of the market through the months ahead

US International Trade

Above average trajectory of construction spending and how to be “constructive” in the industry within portfolios

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Just released…

Our 102-page monthly report for March is out, providing you with everything that you need to know for the month(s) ahead.

Highlights in this report include:

Equity market tendencies in the month of March

The decline in global central bank liquidity has taken a pause

Elevated use of the Fed’s Repo facility gives future ammunition to the market

Bears betting on an earnings recession to take down stocks, but not all companies are on a declining path

Abnormally mild winter temperatures supporting the labor market early in 2023

Weather and evolving seasonality significant factors behind early year strength in retail sales

Abnormally mild winter weather fuels strength in industrial production, but an abnormal decline in utility production

Manufacturers highly pessimistic of economic activity moving forward

Waning business and consumer demand burdening shipping activity

Baltic Dry Index down 90% from its pandemic peak

Inflation problem in the economy has not gone away

A dip in consumer loans to start the year

The shift of the trend of delinquencies

Major benchmarks struggling at last year’s breakdown points

Dollar and Yields still key to the direction of stocks

Break of the declining trend of the Volatility Index (VIX)

Our list of all segments of the market to either Accumulate or Avoid, along with relevant ETFs

Positioning for the months ahead

Sector Reviews and Ratings

Stocks that have Frequently Gained in the Month of March

Notable Stocks and ETFs Entering their Period of Strength in March

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