Stock Market Outlook for November 28, 2023
The market has reached a logical point to digest recent strength as it enters the normal tax-loss selling period.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Sprott Physical Silver Trust (TSE:PSLV.TO) Seasonal Chart
iShares MSCI United Kingdom Small-Cap ETF (AMEX:EWUS) Seasonal Chart
SPDR S&P Emerging Markets Small Cap ETF (NYSE:EWX) Seasonal Chart
SPDR S&P Global Natural Resources ETF (NYSE:GNR) Seasonal Chart
Global X Silver Miners ETF (NYSE:SIL) Seasonal Chart
BMO Mid Provincial Bond Index ETF (TSE:ZMP.TO) Seasonal Chart
Rio Tinto PLC (NYSE:RIO) Seasonal Chart
B2Gold Corp. (TSE:BTO.TO) Seasonal Chart
CES Energy Solutions Corp. (TSE:CEU.TO) Seasonal Chart
McEwen Mining Inc. (TSE:MUX.TO) Seasonal Chart
APA Corporation (NASD:APA) Seasonal Chart
First Majestic Silver Corp. (NYSE:AG) Seasonal Chart
Silvercorp Metals, Inc. (AMEX:SVM) Seasonal Chart
iShares S&P/TSX Global Base Metals Index ETF (TSE:XBM.TO) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks closed mildly lower on Monday as traders start to digest the strong gains that have been recorded since the end of October. The S&P 500 Index closed down by two-tenths of one percent, continuing to pause around 4550, just shy of the 4600 hurdle that has hit at the end of July. Support below this market is numerous, including the many points of gap support and major moving averages, providing a backstop to the ongoing positive intermediate path of the benchmark, but a digestion of recent strength is reasonable and likely. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to roll over from overbought territory above 70, while the MACD histogram continues to narrow, hinting of a pending sell signal according to this indicator ahead. While a retracement down to the 50-day moving average (~4350) would be healthy, it is likely that the most the near-term retracement, coinciding with the tax-loss selling period, will produce is down to the open gap between 4400 and 4450. The fact that the 50-day moving average is now starting to curl high hints that the variable hurdle will catch up to the fixed point by the end of the tax loss selling period through the first half of December, which, if realized, would be a sufficient correction in terms of time and price for this shorter-term negative seasonal timeframe ahead of the Santa Claus rally period at month/year-end.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF testing significant horizontal resistance
- Small Cap ETF intersecting with a confluence of resistance at major moving averages
- High Beta and Low Volatility ETFs pausing at interesting junctures
- Our Weekly Chart Books Update: Find out which segment of the market joins our Accumulate list this week
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Sentiment on Monday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bearish at 1.15.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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