Stock Market Outlook for August 13, 2024
Technology sector testing rising trendline support, presenting a make or break point to the strength of the rising intermediate-term trend of the broader equity market.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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RMR Group Inc. (NASD:RMR) Seasonal Chart
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (NYSE:HGV) Seasonal Chart
Vanguard U.S. Total Market Index ETF (TSE:VUN.TO) Seasonal Chart
Columbia Banking System, Inc. (NASD:COLB) Seasonal Chart
Ardelyx, Inc. (NASD:ARDX) Seasonal Chart
Viad Corp. (NYSE:VVI) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks closed mixed on Monday as the market braces for a week full of key economic data points ahead. The S&P 500 Index ended essentially unchanged, making incremental progress above the 100-day moving average (5314), but showing hesitation below the 50-day moving average (5448). Resistance at the 20-day moving average (5428) was confirmed on August 1st, thereby defining a negative short-term path, but our focus in our seasonal approach is whether or not resistance at some of the more intermediate-term moving averages act as a cap to the current rebound attempt. A market that is showing greater evidence of resistance than support over an intermediate-term timeframe warrants avoiding and we may be close to confirming this negative trajectory that aligns with a traditional seasonal mandate. The major level is the April lows around 4960, a break of which would confirm the end to the path of higher-highs and higher-lows that has been intact for the past 21 months. As we have been emphasizing, defensive assets and volatility hedges are certainly preferred at this time of year (see our list of Accumulate candidates that are showing price action conducive to adding to portfolios).
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- The Technology sector
- NASDAQ Composite and NASDAQ 100
- Computer Hardware and Semiconductor industries
- Our weekly chart books update, along with our list of all segments of the market to either Accumulate or Avoid
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- Cryptocurrencies
- Commodities
- Major Benchmarks
- Sub-sectors / Industries
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Sentiment on Monday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended slightly bearish at 1.01.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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