Stock Market Outlook for August 19, 2024
The few bright spots in the manufacturing economy continue to present attractive investment opportunities during this period of volatility for stocks.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Diamond Hill Investment Group, Inc. (NASD:DHIL) Seasonal Chart
Keysight Technologies Inc. (NYSE:KEYS) Seasonal Chart
Vanguard FTSE Global All Cap ex Canada Index ETF (TSE:VXC.TO) Seasonal Chart
iShares Core MSCI All Country World ex Canada Index ETF (TSE:XAW.TO) Seasonal Chart
BMO MSCI All Country World High Quality Index ETF (TSE:ZGQ.TO) Seasonal Chart
Templeton Dragon Fund (NYSE:TDF) Seasonal Chart
World Kinect Corporation (NYSE:WKC) Seasonal Chart
PDD Holdings Inc. (NASD:PDD) Seasonal Chart
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (NYSE:MGY) Seasonal Chart
International Game Tech (NYSE:IGT) Seasonal Chart
Hudbay Minerals Inc. (NYSE:HBM) Seasonal Chart
Ryanair Holdings PLC (NASD:RYAAY) Seasonal Chart
Halozyme Therapeutics Inc. (NASD:HALO) Seasonal Chart
Macerich Co. (NYSE:MAC) Seasonal Chart
Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE:LUV) Seasonal Chart
Invesco Ltd. (NYSE:IVZ) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks closed mildly higher on Friday as traders continue to find relief from the fact that the economy may not be as close to an economic recession as what was originally feared just a couple of weeks ago. The S&P 500 Index ended higher by just over two-tenths of one percent, holding levels above Thursday’s upside gap that saw the 50-day moving average (5464) retaken as support. Short-term resistance at the August high of 5566 is the test, after which the all-time high at 5669 is the hurdle to watch. Some narrowing of the spread of major moving averages compared to one another can start to be picked out, highlighting the diminished momentum of the bullish trend that has persisted since last October’s low. The rising intermediate-term trend stemming from the October 2022 bottom remains intact and we have yet to cross the threshold that would unleash more sustainable selling pressures. The degradation in economic fundamentals in recent months has risked resulting in higher than average volatility through this period of weakness for stocks in August, September, and October, and the desire is to continue to lean on the side of caution in risk assets so long as the macro economic backdrop expresses uncertainty. The recent “shock in stocks” amidst the short-volatility collapse is likely to remain fresh on investor minds as we head into the heart of this erratic timeframe for the equity market over the next eight or nine weeks. No reason to stretch out on the risk spectrum with seasonal, fundamental, and technical uncertainties present.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Weekly look at the large-cap benchmark
- US Industrial Production and the investment implications within
- Manufacturer sentiment during this traditional retail stockpiling period
- Canada Manufacturing Sales and the category that is bucking the pronounced declines that were recorded in June
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Sentiment on Friday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.91.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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