Stock Market Outlook for January 21, 2025
Shining light on the Industrial sector into the first days of the Trump presidency.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Asbury Automotive Group Inc. (NYSE:ABG) Seasonal Chart
CNX Resources Corp. (NYSE:CNX) Seasonal Chart
Williams Sonoma, Inc. (NYSE:WSM) Seasonal Chart
Myers Industries, Inc. (NYSE:MYE) Seasonal Chart
Wolverine World Wide Inc. (NYSE:WWW) Seasonal Chart
Ericsson Telephone Co. (NASD:ERIC) Seasonal Chart
National Storage Affiliates Trust (NYSE:NSA) Seasonal Chart
Arbor Metals Corp. (TSXV:ABR.V) Seasonal Chart
CSX Corp. (NASD:CSX) Seasonal Chart
Stella-Jones, Inc. (TSE:SJ.TO) Seasonal Chart
Hexcel Corp. (NYSE:HXL) Seasonal Chart
Eldorado Gold Corp. (NYSE:EGO) Seasonal Chart
Invesco S&P SmallCap Consumer Staples ETF (NASD:PSCC) Seasonal Chart
Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. (AMEX:REPX) Seasonal Chart
Note 1: Monday is Martin Luther King, Jr. Day in the US and markets will be closed in observance of this holiday. Our next report will be released on Tuesday.
Note 2: As many of our subscribers know, January is a very busy month for us amidst the updating of our chart database to include the price performance from the calendar-year that has just past. We are pleased to announce that this process is now complete and all profiles have been updated. New downloads are available to yearly subscribers, detailing maximum and optimal holding periods, as well as monthly performance metrics, for all securities in Canada and the US with sufficient data associated with them. Yearly subscribers can look for the links to these new files in the Download tab.
The Markets
Stocks traded higher on Friday as technology names attempted to play catch-up to some of the strong gains recorded in value segments this past week. The S&P 500 Index ended up by 1.00%, moving above resistance around 20 and 50-day moving averages at 5924 and 5967, respectively. The benchmark also inched above short-term declining trendline resistance around 5975, a hurdle that the benchmark has persisted below over the past month. The early January high at 6021 is now the hurdle to watch, a break of which would take the benchmark off the short-term path of lower-highs and lower-lows that has persisted since the start of December. We continue to monitor the appearance that resistance, such as around the 20 and 50-day moving averages, has been starting to have a greater influence than support, giving reason to conclude the shift of trend. Friday’s gap, albeit marginal, above some important thresholds certainly alleviates some of that concern, but the doji indecision candlestick that resulted from Friday’s session fails to give the breakout legitimacy. We continue to monitor the potential impact of the apparent rotation in the market on our list of candidates in the market to Accumulate and to Avoid and we are still expecting that our list will show more of a neutral appearance through the weeks ahead as segments that were previously noted as Accumulate candidates fall off, potentially replaced by some value segments of the market, and as areas to Avoid are added.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Weekly look at the large-cap benchmark and our preferred tactical allocation to the market benchmark at the present time
- US Industrial Production and the investment implications within
- Manufacturer sentiment
- Industrial sector and industries worthy to Accumulate
- Investor sentiment falling towards complacency on this important options expiration day
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Sentiment on Friday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended overly bullish at 0.70.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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