Stock Market Outlook for February 28, 2025
Much chatter over the spike of bearish sentiment according to the AAII, but margin debt that is at a record high points to complacency.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Atmos Energy Corp. (NYSE:ATO) Seasonal Chart
Blackbaud Inc. (NASD:BLKB) Seasonal Chart
Dycom Industries, Inc. (NYSE:DY) Seasonal Chart
Polaris Inds, Inc. (NYSE:PII) Seasonal Chart
Sanofi SA (NASD:SNY) Seasonal Chart
Mueller Water Products Inc. (NYSE:MWA) Seasonal Chart
Chemours Co. (NYSE:CC) Seasonal Chart
ConAgra Brands, Inc. (NYSE:CAG) Seasonal Chart
Quest Diagnostics Inc. (NYSE:DGX) Seasonal Chart
Emera Inc. (TSE:EMA.TO) Seasonal Chart
Shenandoah Telecommunications Co. (NASD:SHEN) Seasonal Chart
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The Markets
Stocks sold off again on Thursday as tariff concerns and the degradation of economic data that has been realized over the past month weighs on investor sentiment. The S&P 500 Index closed down by 1.59%, showing distinct rejection from resistance at the 50-day moving average (6000). A cap to the benchmark remains overhead around 6100, representing the highs from the past few months. Momentum indicators have negatively diverged from price since the middle of last year, highlighting the waning enthusiasm investors had been expressing towards tech-heavy (Mag-7) benchmarks, like this, amidst extreme valuations. Downside risks on a pullback over the near-term are to the July/August 2024 highs around 5700, a move that would amount to a 7% pullback from recent heights. This would be a healthy and ordinary correction within a bull market, by any measure. We continue to monitor the potential impact of the apparent rotation in the market on our list of candidates in the market to Accumulate and to Avoid and we have adopted more of a neutral stance as segments that were previously noted as Accumulate candidates fall off (eg. Technology) and as areas to Avoid are added.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Break of some important short-term levels of support for major market benchmarks
- Broader equity market measures carving out topping patterns
- US Dollar Index stabilizing around its 20-week moving average
- Margin debt and credit balances in trading accounts
- High yield spreads
- Weekly Jobless Claims and the health of the labor market
- Investor sentiment and what to look for to suggest a capitulation in this equity market pullback
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Sentiment on Thursday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish (despite the selloff) at 0.83.
To be released…
We are busy placing the finishing touches on our monthly report for March, providing you with insight and analysis of what to expect through the month(s) ahead. Subscribers can expect this extensive and all-encompassing report to reach their inbox on Friday morning and, soon thereafter, in the report archive.
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Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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