Stock Market Outlook for April 22, 2025
The US Dollar Index is breaking down as investors flee domestic US equities for stocks overseas and non-cyclical commodities.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Capital One Fncl Corp. (NYSE:COF) Seasonal Chart
Calian Group Ltd. (TSE:CGY.TO) Seasonal Chart
Invesco S&P 500 GARP ETF (AMEX:SPGP) Seasonal Chart
Goosehead Insurance, Inc. (NASD:GSHD) Seasonal Chart
Oportun Financial Corp. (NASD:OPRT) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Ongoing economic uncertainty amidst an escalating tariff war, along with questions as to the fate of Jerome Powell following recent criticism of the Fed Chair from the president, had investors selling stocks on Monday. The S&P 500 Index ended down by 2.36% on low Easter Monday volume, continuing to roll over from the pre-tariff announcement lows around 5500, as well as the declining 20-day moving average (5428). There is a cap over this market in the range between 5500 and 5800 that would likely require a catalyst to break; without one, look for the sellers to step in around this zone. As has been pointed out, the benchmark remains in a precarious state heading into the second quarter, holding levels below the 200-day moving average, a variable hurdle that is now rolling over and providing a characteristic of an intermediate to long-term bearish trend. Unfortunately, this technical degradation in the market has come during this period of seasonal strength that runs through the month of April, therefore we are biased to let this favourable timeframe show what it is capable of before taking action, particularly with how washed out stocks have become; the more likely time that the next evolution of the declining intermediate-to-long-term trend for stocks should occur is through the off-season that starts in May. We continue to leave our Super Simple Seasonal Portfolio as is, but we are cognizant of the need to do something ahead to mitigate the threat that the intermediate-term trend is portraying. We continue to monitor the potential impact of the rotation in the market on our list of candidates in the market to Accumulate and to Avoid, but we are finding things to buy amidst this market tumult.
Want to know which areas of the market to buy or sell? Our Weekly Chart Books have just been updated, providing a clear Accumulate, Avoid, or Neutral rating for currencies, cryptocurrencies, commodities, broad markets, and subsectors/industries of the market. Subscribers can login and click on the relevant links to access.
- Currencies
- Cryptocurrencies
- Commodities
- Major Benchmarks
- Sub-sectors / Industries
- ETFs: Bonds | Commodities | Equity Markets | Industries | Sectors
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Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Our weekly chart books update, along with our list of all segments of the market to either Accumulate or Avoid
- Other Notes
- Agriculture stocks
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for April 22
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Sentiment on Monday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bearish at 1.02.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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