Stock Market Outlook for April 24, 2025
While Gold is showing signs of upside exhaustion, don’t count out the longer-term potential for the broader precious metal trade, including the miners.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Minerva Neurosciences, Inc. (NASD:NERV) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Ongoing optimism that trade tensions between the US and China could ease had investors continuing to push stocks higher on Wednesday as the reach towards resistance on the S&P 500 Index at 5500 persists. The large-cap benchmark added to Tuesday’s rally to end higher by 1.67%, piercing above the declining 20-day moving average (5384) at the highs of the session. There is a cap over this market in the range between 5500 and 5800 that would likely require a catalyst to break; without one, look for the sellers to step in around this zone. As has been pointed out, the benchmark remains in a precarious state heading into the second quarter, holding levels below the 200-day moving average, a variable hurdle that is now rolling over and providing a characteristic of an intermediate to long-term bearish trend. Unfortunately, this technical degradation in the market has come during this period of seasonal strength that runs through the month of April, therefore we are biased to let this favourable timeframe show what it is capable of before taking action, particularly with how washed out stocks have recently become; the more likely time that the next evolution of the declining intermediate-to-long-term trend for stocks should occur is through the off-season that starts in May. We continue to leave our Super Simple Seasonal Portfolio as is, but we are cognizant of the need to do something ahead to mitigate the threat that the intermediate-term trend is portraying. We continue to monitor the potential impact of the rotation in the market on our list of candidates in the market to Accumulate and to Avoid, but we are finding things to buy amidst this market tumult.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Gold
- Performance of Gold Miners relative to the commodity
- US New Home Sales
- The declining median value of new homes sold
- The high level of unsold new homes on the market
- Lumber and forestry stocks
- The state of oil supply and demand and what it has to say about the state of the economy right now
- Energy sector stocks
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Sentiment on Wednesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended slightly bullish at 0.91.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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