Stock Market Outlook for June 20, 2025
The spread between 10-year and 3-month treasury yields is remaining eerily tight right around 0, which is a healthy place, for now.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Carmax Inc. (NYSE:KMX) Seasonal Chart
Rhythm Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASD:RYTM) Seasonal Chart
Standard Lithium Ltd. (AMEX:SLI) Seasonal Chart
Gulf Island Fabrication, Inc. (NASD:GIFI) Seasonal Chart
Note: Equity markets in the US are closed on Thursday (June 19th) for the Juneteenth National Independence Day. As a result, our next report will be released at the end of the week (Saturday).
The Markets
Stocks wavered around the flat-line on Wednesday as investors awaited for and responded to the outcome of the FOMC meeting that took place over the past two-days. The S&P 500 Index closed down by a mere three basis points (0.03%), continuing to react to the band of resistance between 5900 and 6100. A negative divergence of MACD and RSI that has been recorded since May 20th highlights upside exhaustion, lending itself to a pullback that is quite normal, regardless of the reason, at this time of year. Support at the 20-day moving average (5951) is an important line in the sand given that it has remained unviolated throughout the bull-market rally from the April lows. The first of the two timeframes that account for the bulk of the weakness for the offseason for stocks is upon us, running from June 14th to June 27th, therefore adding new risk exposure at this point is not opportune, but things look setup to provide opportunities to add risk exposure before the month concludes. Our list of candidates in the market that are worthy to Accumulate or Avoid remains appropriately positioned, keeping investors tuned into those segments of the market that are working, while highlighting those groups that are not.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Tight treasury yield spreads
- Aggregate Bond prices firming support
- US Industrial Production and the investment implications within
- Depressed manufacturer sentiment
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Sentiment on Wednesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bearish at 1.06.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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