Stock Market Outlook for July 21, 2025
Identifying the cues to look for to signal the start of the period of third quarter risk aversion and which areas of the market to focus on in portfolios presently.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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FreightCar America Inc. (NASD:RAIL) Seasonal Chart
Uranium Royalty Corp. (TSE:URC.TO) Seasonal Chart
WisdomTree LargeCap Dividend Fund (NYSE:DLN) Seasonal Chart
RLI Corp. (NYSE:RLI) Seasonal Chart
Primerica Inc. (NYSE:PRI) Seasonal Chart
IntercontinentalExchange Group, Inc. (NYSE:ICE) Seasonal Chart
Gallagher Arthur J & Co. (NYSE:AJG) Seasonal Chart
Aflac, Inc. (NYSE:AFL) Seasonal Chart
Automotive Properties REIT (TSE:APR/UN.TO) Seasonal Chart
Invesco DB Base Metals Fund (NYSE:DBB) Seasonal Chart
iShares Gold Bullion ETF (TSE:CGL/C.TO) Seasonal Chart
Sprott Physical Gold Silver Trust (TSE:CEF.TO) Seasonal Chart
BlackRock iShares Silver Bullion ETF (TSE:SVR/C.TO) Seasonal Chart
Invesco S&P 500 BuyWrite ETF (NYSE:PBP) Seasonal Chart
Autodesk, Inc. (NASD:ADSK) Seasonal Chart
SkyWest, Inc. (NASD:SKYW) Seasonal Chart
Hain Celestial Group, Inc. (NASD:HAIN) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks closed little changed on Friday as investors brushed off further threats on the tariff front. The S&P 500 Index closed lower by a mere basis point (0.01%), remaining at the upper limit of the tight short-term consolidation span between 6200 and 6300; a break of the 100-point range would project a move of the same magnitude (eg. higher to 6400 or lower to 6100). The technical and seasonal backdrops provide an upside bias. Support at the cloud of major moving averages remains well defined, including the 20-day moving average (6201), a variable hurdle that has been unviolated throughout the bull-market rally from the April lows. Until some of the implied levels of support start to crack, this market still has the appearance of having an easier ability to excel above levels of resistance than to fail below levels of support. While overbought signals have triggered according to various metrics in recent days, this should be viewed as a sign of strength given that market participants continue to desire putting funds to work around these heights. Our list of candidates in the market that are worthy to Accumulate or Avoid continues to be appropriately positioned, keeping investors tuned into those segments of the market that are working in such areas as in the Technology, Communication Services, Financials, and Utilities sectors.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Weekly look at the large-cap benchmark
- Breaking down how sectors are reacting to levels of horizontal resistance and which ones are of focus for allocation in portfolios
- Defensive sectors failing to entice buying demand heading into a normally risk-off time of year
- Cues to look for to signal the start of the period of risk-aversion
- US Housing Starts and the investment implications within
- Consumer loan activity and the surge in home equity loans
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Sentiment on Friday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.75.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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