Stock Market Outlook for August 13, 2025
July’s report on Consumer Prices is highly indicative of where to position portfolios in this market and what to shy away from.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Sun Life Financial (NYSE:SLF) Seasonal Chart
Provident Financial Services Inc. (NYSE:PFS) Seasonal Chart
First Merchants Corp. (NASD:FRME) Seasonal Chart
Ardelyx, Inc. (NASD:ARDX) Seasonal Chart
Cadence Bank (NYSE:CADE) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks jumped on Tuesday as a benign CPI report (at least on the headline print) had traders out buying stocks given the prospect of a central bank rate cuts ahead. The S&P 500 Index closed higher by 1.13%, punching out a fresh record high. Short-covering in a range of segments (eg. small-caps, transportation) that had started to roll over in recent weeks amidst the onset of the period of volatility for the market were responsible for the positivity as traders question whether or not the erratic trading that stocks are known for at this time will be sustained. Momentum indicators continue to roll over from the most overbought levels since July of 2024, just prior to the volatility shock that evolved rapidly through the first week of August of last year. Despite the new highs in prices of equities, this is still the time of year to be on your toes given that August is upon us, a well known volatile period that sees equity markets destabilize from their summer strength; looking for opportunities to peel back risk in portfolios remains appropriate in order to mitigate the erratic moves that impacts stocks in the final months of the third quarter (August/September). The strategy remains to avoid being aggressive in risk (stocks) in the near-term, but take advantage of any volatility shocks (should they materialize) to increase the risk profile of portfolios ahead of the best six months of the year for stocks that gets underway in October. Our list of candidates in the market that are worthy to Accumulate or Avoid continues to be dialed in appropriately, keeping investors tuned into those segments of the market that are working according to our three-pronged approach incorporating seasonal, technical, and fundamental analysis.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the investment implications within
- Positioning in the bond market at this normally strong time of year
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Sentiment on Tuesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended close to neutral at 0.94.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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