Stock Market Outlook for August 26, 2025
Commodities are becoming a diversifier to portfolios as technology momentum wanes.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Enerpac Tool Group Corp. (NYSE:EPAC) Seasonal Chart
Finance of America Cos. Inc. (NYSE:FOA) Seasonal Chart
Deutsche X-trackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF (AMEX:ASHR) Seasonal Chart
BMO US Dividend ETF (TSE:ZDY.TO) Seasonal Chart
Host Hotels & Resorts Inc. (NASD:HST) Seasonal Chart
Amerco (NYSE:UHAL) Seasonal Chart
Moog, Inc. (NYSE:MOG/A) Seasonal Chart
Webster Financial Corp. (NYSE:WBS) Seasonal Chart
International Bancshares Corp. (NASD:IBOC) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks closed marginally lower on Monday, digesting some of the strength that was achieved on Friday following Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. The S&P 500 Index ended down by just over four-tenths of one percent, staying within close proximity of the record highs charted in recent weeks just below 6500. The bears are having difficulty sustaining the levels below the 20-day moving average (6387), an important hurdle for the short-term trend of prices off of the April lows. Momentum indicators are still showing negative divergences versus price where lower-highs below July’s overbought extremes have been charted for RSI and MACD. The result gives strong evidence of buying exhaustion, once again lending itself to the onset of a digestion of prices aligning with the period of volatility for the equity market. As has been emphasized, this is the time to be on your toes given the well known volatile period that this time of year is notorious for. As equity markets destabilize from their summer strength, looking for opportunities to peel back risk in portfolios has become appropriate in order to mitigate the erratic moves that impacts stocks in the final months of the third quarter (August/September). The strategy remains to avoid being aggressive in risk (stocks) in the near-term, but take advantage of any volatility shocks (should they materialize) to increase the risk profile of portfolios ahead of the best six months of the year for stocks that gets underway in October. Our list of candidates in the market that are worthy to Accumulate or Avoid continues to be dialed in appropriately, keeping investors tuned into those segments of the market that are working according to our three-pronged approach incorporating seasonal, technical, and fundamental analysis.
Want to know which areas of the market to buy or sell? Our Weekly Chart Books have just been updated, providing a clear Accumulate, Avoid, or Neutral rating for currencies, cryptocurrencies, commodities, broad markets, and subsectors/industries of the market. Subscribers can login and click on the relevant links to access.
- Currencies
- Cryptocurrencies
- Commodities
- Major Benchmarks
- Sub-sectors / Industries
- ETFs: Bonds | Commodities | Equity Markets | Industries | Sectors
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Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Our weekly chart books update, along with the list of all segments of the market to either Accumulate or Avoid
- Other Notes
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for August 26
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Sentiment on Monday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.86.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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