Stock Market Outlook for September 10, 2025
A fuel source that has worked to elevate the prices of risk assets (stocks) is starting to flash an empty signal.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Bank of New York Mellon Corp (NYSE:BK) Seasonal Chart
US Bancorp (NYSE:USB) Seasonal Chart
North West Co. Inc. (TSE:NWC.TO) Seasonal Chart
Mastercard (NYSE:MA) Seasonal Chart
Hillenbrand Inc. (NYSE:HI) Seasonal Chart
Kearny Financial Corp. (NASD:KRNY) Seasonal Chart
iShares MSCI Israel Capped ETF (NYSE:EIS) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks closed generally higher on Tuesday as traders await some key reads of inflation to be released in the days ahead. The S&P 500 Index ended up by just over a quarter of one percent, holding above short-term support around the 20-day moving average (6456), but still showing struggle to achieve incremental new buyers around the 6500 zone. Momentum indicators continue to negatively diverge versus from price where lower-highs below July’s overbought extremes have been charted for RSI and MACD. The result gives strong evidence of buying exhaustion, once again lending itself to the onset of a digestion of prices aligning with the period of volatility for the equity market. As has been emphasized, this is the time to be on your toes given the well known volatile period that this time of year is notorious for. As equity markets destabilize from their summer strength, looking for opportunities to peel back risk in portfolios has become appropriate in order to mitigate the erratic moves that impacts stocks in the final months of the third quarter (August/September). The strategy remains to avoid being aggressive in risk (stocks) in the near-term, but take advantage of any volatility shocks (should they materialize) to increase the risk profile of portfolios ahead of the best six months of the year for stocks that gets underway in October. Our list of candidates in the market that are worthy to Accumulate or Avoid continues to be dialed in appropriately, keeping investors tuned into those segments of the market that are working according to our three-pronged approach incorporating seasonal, technical, and fundamental analysis.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Materials and Industrial sectors reacting to levels of resistance
- Net Assets held by the Fed
- The waning level of Reverse Repurchase Agreements (REPOs)
- Waning downside momentum in Credit spreads
- The loss of outperformance of High Yield (Junk) Bonds over Investment Grade Corporates
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Sentiment on Tuesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.84.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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