Stock Market Outlook for September 16, 2025
The VIX just did something rare, closing firmly higher during a positive session in the equity market.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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ATN International, Inc. (NASD:ATNI) Seasonal Chart
Northfield Bancorp, Inc. (NASD:NFBK) Seasonal Chart
Safety Insurance Group, Inc. (NASD:SAFT) Seasonal Chart
Oil Dri Corp. Of America (NYSE:ODC) Seasonal Chart
Seneca Foods Corp. (NASD:SENEA) Seasonal Chart
Oak Valley Bancorp (NASD:OVLY) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
A renewed push into growth stocks, at the expense of value, was sufficient to push the S&P 500 Index further into record high territory. The S&P 500 Index ended up by almost half of one percent, continuing to elevate above the 20-day moving average (6480), the variable hurdle that has supported the short-term trend off of the April lows. The weakest, most volatile, period for the equity market is directly ahead, running through the last couple of weeks of the month (the first half of September is normally positive), leaving us with a cautious bias pertaining to broad equity exposure in the very near-term. The strategy remains to avoid being aggressive in risk (stocks) for now (over the next few weeks), but take advantage of any volatility shocks (should they materialize) to increase the risk profile of portfolios ahead of the best six months of the year for stocks that gets underway in October. We have picked our spots in the market to which we want to be exposed in our list of candidates in the market that are worthy to Accumulate or Avoid and the performance continues to be exceptional. Those themes that are enduring according to our three-pronged approach incorporating seasonal, technical, and fundamental analysis keeps us focused and we are not concerned, at all, if the broad market weakness that is normal of September fails to materialize.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- The rare gyration in the Volatility Index during the positive session for stocks on Monday
- Our weekly chart books update, along with our list of all segments of the market to either Accumulate or Avoid
- Other Notes
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for September 16
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- Commodities
- Major Benchmarks
- Sub-sectors / Industries
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Sentiment on Monday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.87.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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