Stock Market Outlook for September 26, 2025
Seasonally, the US Dollar Index remains in a position of a headwind against stocks through the month of October.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Procure Space ETF (NASD:UFO) Seasonal Chart
Dow Holdings Inc. (NYSE:DOW) Seasonal Chart
Neuronetics, Inc. (NASD:STIM) Seasonal Chart
Molson Coors Brewing Co. (NYSE:TAP) Seasonal Chart
SPDR S&P China ETF (NYSE:GXC) Seasonal Chart
iShares Global Agriculture Index ETF (TSE:COW.TO) Seasonal Chart
AAR Corp. (NYSE:AIR) Seasonal Chart
Reinsurance Group of America (NYSE:RGA) Seasonal Chart
Brink’s Co. (NYSE:BCO) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks continued their declines into a third session as the normal end of quarter pullback in the equity market progresses. The S&P 500 Index ended down by half of one percent, reaching back to support at the 20-day moving average (~6561), the variable hurdle that has kept the short-term trend off of the April lows intact. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is rolling over from overbought territory as buying exhaustion sets in. The weakest, most volatile, period for the equity market is upon us, running through the last couple of weeks of the month (the first half of September is normally positive), leaving us with a cautious bias pertaining to broad equity exposure in the very near-term. The strategy remains to avoid being aggressive in risk (stocks) for now (over the next couple of weeks), but take advantage of any volatility shocks (should they materialize) to increase the risk profile of portfolios ahead of the best six months of the year for stocks that gets underway in October. We have picked our spots in the market to which we want to be exposed (including various technology subsectors) in our list of candidates in the market that are worthy to Accumulate or Avoid and the performance continues to be exceptional. Those themes that are enduring according to our three-pronged approach incorporating seasonal, technical, and fundamental analysis keeps us focused and we are not concerned, at all, if the broad market weakness that is normal of September fails to materialize.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- The headwind that the US Dollar is imposing on stocks
- US Existing Home Sales
- Weekly Jobless Claims and the health of the labor market
- US Trade in Goods
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for September 26
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Sentiment on Thursday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.89.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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