Stock Market Outlook for October 10, 2025
Pursuing beneficiaries of a falling interest rate environment into year-end.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Inotiv, Inc. (NASD:NOTV) Seasonal Chart
Scienjoy Holding Corp. (NASD:SJ) Seasonal Chart
MeiraGTx Holdings plc (NASD:MGTX) Seasonal Chart
Foran Mining Corp. (TSE:FOM.TO) Seasonal Chart
VitalHub Corp. (TSE:VHI.TO) Seasonal Chart
Westlake Chemical Partners LP (NYSE:WLKP) Seasonal Chart
Uranium Energy Corp. (AMEX:UEC) Seasonal Chart
Lindsay Corp. (NYSE:LNN) Seasonal Chart
Werner Enterprises, Inc. (NASD:WERN) Seasonal Chart
Cerence Inc. (NASD:CRNC) Seasonal Chart
Sonos Inc. (NASD:SONO) Seasonal Chart
Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) Seasonal Chart
ASML Holding NV (NASD:ASML) Seasonal Chart
Blackrock, Inc. (NYSE:BLK) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks slipped on Thursday as ongoing pressures from the rising US Dollar weighed on sentiment. The large-cap benchmark closed down by nearly three-tenths of one percent, still holding above support around the 20-day moving average (~6668), the variable hurdle that has kept the short-term trend off of the April lows intact. The weakest, most volatile, period for the equity market through the back half of September has come to an end, but evidence of a bottoming setup on the volatility index and the seasonal rise in the US Dollar hints that we may not be in the clear toward broad risk exposure, yet. The average (seasonal) peak for the so-called “fear gauge” is the end of October, while the average peak for the Dollar is in November. Despite the transition out of the weakest two-week stretch of the year for stocks, the strategy remains the same, which is to avoid being aggressive in risk (stocks) for now (over the next couple of weeks), but take advantage of any volatility shocks (should they materialize) to increase the risk profile of portfolios ahead of the best six months of the year for stocks that gets underway at the end of October. We have picked our spots in the market to which we want to be exposed, both through and beyond the period of seasonal volatility, in our list of candidates in the market that are worthy to Accumulate or Avoid and the performance continues to be exceptional. Those themes that are enduring according to our three-pronged approach incorporating seasonal, technical, and fundamental analysis keeps us focused and we are not concerned, at all, that the broad market weakness that is normal of this time of year has failed to materialize. We will continue to allow for the possibility of volatility to materialize in the month ahead and position the risk metrics of portfolios appropriately until a more ideal setup to reach out on the risk spectrum (eg. away from bonds/gold and towards our four desired sectors to be exposed) is revealed. The Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that we oversee at Castlemoore continues to chart all-time highs, outperforming the market in the process.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- A look ahead to Friday’s Labour Force Survey
- The treasury yield curve
- Aggregate bonds
- Emerging Markets
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for October 10
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Sentiment on Thursday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.80.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
- No significant earnings scheduled for today.
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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