Stock Market Outlook for October 14, 2025
Time to dust off the simple 12-21 strategy using the Volatility Index (VIX).
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
Subscribers Click on the relevant link to view the full profile. Not a subscriber? Signup here.
Bitfarms Ltd. (NASD:BITF) Seasonal Chart
Inspire Medical Systems, Inc. (NYSE:INSP) Seasonal Chart
Endava Plc (NYSE:DAVA) Seasonal Chart
Ensign Group Inc. (NASD:ENSG) Seasonal Chart
Paramount Global (NASD:PARA) Seasonal Chart
Ambarella, Inc. (NASD:AMBA) Seasonal Chart
Berry Plastics Group Inc. (NYSE:BERY) Seasonal Chart
Canadian General Investments, Ltd. (TSE:CGI.TO) Seasonal Chart
Mistras Group Inc. (NYSE:MG) Seasonal Chart
iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF (NYSE:IWD) Seasonal Chart
SNC-Lavalin Group, Inc. (TSE:ATRL.TO) Seasonal Chart
iShares Global Water Index ETF (TSE:CWW.TO) Seasonal Chart
LendingTree, Inc. (NASD:TREE) Seasonal Chart
AngioDynamics Inc. (NASD:ANGO) Seasonal Chart
Synaptics, Inc. (NASD:SYNA) Seasonal Chart
Advance Auto Parts Inc. (NYSE:AAP) Seasonal Chart
United Therapeutics Corp. (NASD:UTHR) Seasonal Chart
Toromont Industries Ltd. (TSE:TIH.TO) Seasonal Chart
T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc. (NASD:TROW) Seasonal Chart
Keycorp (NYSE:KEY) Seasonal Chart
L3Harris Technologies Inc. (NYSE:LHX) Seasonal Chart
Howmet Aerospace Inc. (NYSE:HWM) Seasonal Chart
Constellation Software Inc. (TSE:CSU.TO) Seasonal Chart
Xylem Inc. (NYSE:XYL) Seasonal Chart
Wesco Intl, Inc. (NYSE:WCC) Seasonal Chart
Group I Automotive Inc. (NYSE:GPI) Seasonal Chart
Chemed Corp. (NYSE:CHE) Seasonal Chart
Note: Monday is a holiday in Canada (Thanksgiving) and, as a result, our next Market Outlook report will be released on Tuesday. Our weekly Chart Books will be updated on schedule on Sunday, but the commentary will be provided on Tuesday. Happy Thanksgiving to our Canadian audience!
The Markets
Markets were rattled on Friday following threats of higher US tariffs on China. The large-cap benchmark plunged by 2.71%, quickly moving below the 20-day moving average (~6667), the variable hurdle that had kept the short-term trend off of the April lows intact. A breakdown of the prevailing path is implied. The move caused the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to fall below the mid-point of its range for the first time since April as the characteristics of a bull market trend that existed previously fade. As has been pointed out in recent days/weeks, evidence of a bottoming setup on the volatility index and the seasonal rise in the US Dollar have suggested that the market may not be in the clear toward broad risk exposure, yet. October is the month when fear/volatility hit a peak and, in an instant, the month is showing this unsettled state. Despite the transition out of the weakest two-week stretch of the year for stocks at the end of September, the strategy has remained the same, which is to avoid being aggressive in risk (stocks) for now (over the next couple of weeks), but take advantage of any volatility shocks (should they materialize) to increase the risk profile of portfolios ahead of the best six months of the year for stocks that gets underway at the end of October. We have picked our spots in the market to which we want to be exposed, both through and beyond the period of seasonal volatility, in our list of candidates in the market that are worthy to Accumulate or Avoid and this will be an ideal starting point to build up allocations for the best six month of the year timeframe. We will continue to allow for the possibility of volatility to ramp up through the days/weeks ahead and position the risk metrics of portfolios appropriately until a more ideal setup to reach out on the risk spectrum (eg. away from bonds/gold and towards our four desired sectors to be exposed) is revealed. The Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that we oversee at Castlemoore continues to be well positioned, outperforming the market.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Weekly look at the large-cap benchmark
- The 12-21 strategy using the VIX
- Canada Labour Force Survey and the investment implications within
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for October 14
Not signed up yet? Subscribe now to receive full access to all of the research and analysis that we publish
Sentiment on Friday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended neutral at 0.96.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
| Sponsored By... |
|
