Stock Market Outlook for October 15, 2025
Friday’s reversal places 20-week moving averages and broken levels of horizontal resistance in play as support.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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3M Co. (NYSE:MMM) Seasonal Chart
Weyerhaeuser Co. (NYSE:WY) Seasonal Chart
Waters Corp. (NYSE:WAT) Seasonal Chart
Steel Dynamics, Inc. (NASD:STLD) Seasonal Chart
Mettler Toledo Intl, Inc. (NYSE:MTD) Seasonal Chart
Texas Roadhouse Inc. (NASD:TXRH) Seasonal Chart
iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (NYSE:ITA) Seasonal Chart
iShares Russell Top 200 Value ETF (NYSE:IWX) Seasonal Chart
Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLF) Seasonal Chart
Invesco S&P 100 Equal Weight ETF (AMEX:EQWL) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks closed mildly lower on Tuesday as investors monitor developments on the trade front following last week’s shock that tensions between the US and China are reflaring. The large-cap benchmark ended lower by nearly two-tenths of one percent after reaching back to recently broken support at the 20-day moving average (~6671) earlier in the session. The variable hurdle had kept the short-term trend off of the April lows intact. The volatility index continues to move higher from a bottoming pattern and the US Dollar remains positively sloped in the short-term, both aligned with seasonal norms and suggesting that the market may not be in the clear toward broad risk exposure, yet. October is the month when fear/volatility hit a peak and, in an instant, the month is showing this unsettled state. Despite the transition out of the weakest two-week stretch of the year for stocks at the end of September, the strategy has remained the same, which is to avoid being aggressive in risk (stocks) for now (over the next couple of weeks), but take advantage of the volatility shock to increase the risk profile of portfolios ahead of the best six months of the year for stocks that gets underway at the end of October. We have picked our spots in the market to which we want to be exposed, both through and beyond the period of seasonal volatility, in our list of candidates in the market that are worthy to Accumulate or Avoid and this will be an ideal starting point to build up allocations for the best six month of the year timeframe. We will continue to allow for the possibility of volatility to ramp up through the days/weeks ahead and position the risk metrics of portfolios appropriately until a more ideal setup to reach out on the risk spectrum (eg. away from bonds/gold and towards our four desired sectors to be exposed) is revealed. The Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that we oversee at Castlemoore continues to be well positioned, outperforming the market.
Want to know which areas of the market to buy or sell? Our Weekly Chart Books have just been updated, providing a clear Accumulate, Avoid, or Neutral rating for currencies, cryptocurrencies, commodities, broad markets, and subsectors/industries of the market. Subscribers can login and click on the relevant links to access.
- Currencies
- Cryptocurrencies
- Commodities
- Major Benchmarks
- Sub-sectors / Industries
- ETFs: Bonds | Commodities | Equity Markets | Industries | Sectors
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Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Our weekly chart books update, along with our list of all segments of the market to either Accumulate or Avoid
- Other Notes
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for October 15
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Sentiment on Tuesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended close to neutral at 0.88.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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