Stock Market Outlook for October 21, 2025
Use the 20-week moving average as the bogey for portfolio allocations that are worthy to Accumulate.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Globalstar Inc. (AMEX:GSAT) Seasonal Chart
Ranpak Holdings Corp. (NYSE:PACK) Seasonal Chart
Janus Small/Mid Cap Growth Alpha ETF (NASD:JSMD) Seasonal Chart
Editas Medicine, Inc. (NASD:EDIT) Seasonal Chart
Invesco S&P SmallCap Consumer Discretionary ETF (NASD:PSCD) Seasonal Chart
iShares Edge MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF (AMEX:QUAL) Seasonal Chart
Science Applications International Corp. (NASD:SAIC) Seasonal Chart
Boeing Co. (NYSE:BA) Seasonal Chart
Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASD:IONS) Seasonal Chart
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASD:ALNY) Seasonal Chart
Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE:TM) Seasonal Chart
MercadoLibre Inc. (NASD:MELI) Seasonal Chart
ArcBest Corp. (NASD:ARCB) Seasonal Chart
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (NASD:CBRL) Seasonal Chart
Lennox Intl Inc. (NYSE:LII) Seasonal Chart
Cheesecake Factory Inc. (NASD:CAKE) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Traders entered the week with the desire to buy stocks as they looked past headline risks and focused on the rollout of earnings reports ahead. The large-cap benchmark ended up by 1.07%, moving above short-term resistance at the 20-day moving average (~6676). The variable hurdle had kept the short-term trend off of the April lows intact. The 50-day moving average (6570) has so far mitigated a more serious downfall as the pullback that many are hoping for in order to add to risk exposure for the end of the year fails to produce results of significance. The trend of the volatility index remains positive, aligned with seasonal norms, after reaching the highest level since April as a bottoming pattern progresses. The suggestion remains that the market may not be in the clear toward broad risk exposure, yet. October is the time of year when fear/volatility hit a peak and the month is showing this unsettled state. The strategy has remained the same, which is to avoid being aggressive in risk (stocks) for now (over the next couple of weeks), but take advantage of the volatility shock to increase the risk profile of portfolios ahead of the best six months of the year for stocks that gets underway at the end of October. We have picked our spots in the market to which we want to be exposed, both through and beyond the period of seasonal volatility, in our list of candidates in the market that are worthy to Accumulate or Avoid and this will be an ideal starting point to build up allocations for the best six month of the year timeframe. We will continue to allow for the possibility of volatility to ramp up through the days/weeks ahead and position the risk metrics of portfolios appropriately until a more ideal setup to reach out on the risk spectrum (eg. away from bonds/gold and towards our four desired sectors to be exposed) is revealed. The Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that we oversee at Castlemoore continues to be well positioned, outperforming the market.
Want to know which areas of the market to buy or sell? Our Weekly Chart Books have just been updated, providing a clear Accumulate, Avoid, or Neutral rating for currencies, cryptocurrencies, commodities, broad markets, and subsectors/industries of the market. Subscribers can login and click on the relevant links to access.
- Currencies
- Cryptocurrencies
- Commodities
- Major Benchmarks
- Sub-sectors / Industries
- ETFs: Bonds | Commodities | Equity Markets | Industries | Sectors
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Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Our Weekly Chart Books update, along with our list of all segments of the market to either Accumulate or Avoid
- Other Notes
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for October 21
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Sentiment on Monday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.86.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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