While we are dialed in on our list of Accumulate candidates, it is difficult to signal the all-clear to broader risk exposure that we typically reveal at this time of year while equity benchmarks are stretched above support.

Stock Market Outlook for October 28, 2025

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

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SPDR S&P Transportation ETF (NYSE:XTN) Seasonal Chart

Invesco S&P MidCap Value with Momentum ETF (AMEX:XMVM) Seasonal Chart

Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLI) Seasonal Chart

Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (NYSE:VT) Seasonal Chart

Invesco Dynamic Building & Construction ETF (NYSE:PKB) Seasonal Chart

Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Materials ETF (NYSE:RSPM) Seasonal Chart

Xperi Holding Corp. (NYSE:XPER) Seasonal Chart

GATX Corp. (NYSE:GATX) Seasonal Chart

Cineplex Inc. (TSE:CGX.TO) Seasonal Chart

Xerox Holdings Corp. (NASD:XRX) Seasonal Chart

Whirlpool Corp. (NYSE:WHR) Seasonal Chart

Eaton Corp. (NYSE:ETN) Seasonal Chart

iShares S&P/TSX Capped Information Technology Index ETF (TSE:XIT.TO) Seasonal Chart

AbbVie Inc. (NYSE:ABBV) Seasonal Chart

Caterpillar, Inc. (NYSE:CAT) Seasonal Chart

The Markets

News of a framework to a trade deal between China and the US sent stocks, particularly in growth segments (Technology, Communications services, and Consumer Discretionary), higher on Monday. The S&P 500 Index ended up by 1.23%, elevating further above the 20-day moving average (~6708). The variable hurdle had kept the short-term trend off of the April lows intact. The 50-day moving average (6603) has so far mitigated a more serious downfall as the pullback that many were hoping for in order to add to risk exposure for the end of the year fails to produce results of significance. The volatility index has now cracked the rising trend from the past month and a half as fears fade pertaining to increasing trade tensions and economic degradation. The outcome, admittedly, leaves us in a rather unsettled position. While the segments of the market that we continue to target in our weekly chart books remain correctly dialed in, we have been hesitant to signal the all-clear towards broader risk exposure, as has historically been easy to do at this time of year. October is the time of year when fear/volatility hit a peak and buying into the unease is typically the prudent approach. Last year, the “all-clear” signal was revealed at the start of November and we were subsequently forced to reign in risk around the start of February ahead of the equity market pullback that denied a positive outcome to the best six month trade. For now, we continue to lean on our list of candidates in the market that are worthy to Accumulate or Avoid, which continues to show far more ideas worthy to buy than to sell, but advocating to increase portfolio sensitivity to the market at this point, aligned with the average start to the best six months of the year performance, is difficult to do. The more ideal entry points for an intermediate-term (multi-month) holding period can be pegged around rising 20-week moving averages, which major market benchmarks are stretched well above. This is not negative, but rather less than ideal to assure that we’re ramping up risk exposure at preferable risk-reward points.

Want to know which areas of the market to buy or sell? Our Weekly Chart Books have just been updated, providing a clear Accumulate, Avoid, or Neutral rating for currencies, cryptocurrencies, commodities, broad markets, and subsectors/industries of the market. Subscribers can login and click on the relevant links to access.

Currencies

Cryptocurrencies

Commodities

Major Benchmarks

Sub-sectors / Industries

ETFs: Bonds | Commodities | Equity Markets | Industries | Sectors

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Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:

Our weekly chart books update, along with our list of all segments of the market to either Accumulate or Avoid

Other Notes

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Sentiment on Monday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.78.