Stock Market Outlook for October 30, 2025
The surge in shares of Caterpillar since April bodes well for the seasonal trade in Emerging Markets this fall and winter.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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iShares Morningstar Small-Cap Growth ETF (NYSE:ISCG) Seasonal Chart
Enovis Corporation (NYSE:ENOV) Seasonal Chart
Corporation America Airports SA (NYSE:CAAP) Seasonal Chart
InterActiveCorp (NASD:IAC) Seasonal Chart
SPX Corp. (NYSE:SPXC) Seasonal Chart
Molina Healthcare, Inc. (NYSE:MOH) Seasonal Chart
Forestar Group Inc. (NYSE:FOR) Seasonal Chart
Acco Brands Corp. (NYSE:ACCO) Seasonal Chart
Six Flags Entertainment Corp. (NYSE:FUN) Seasonal Chart
Bruker Corp. (NASD:BRKR) Seasonal Chart
Western Digital Corp. (NASD:WDC) Seasonal Chart
ON Semiconductor Corp. (NASD:ON) Seasonal Chart
PDF Solutions, Inc. (NASD:PDFS) Seasonal Chart
Vanguard Russell 3000 ETF (NASD:VTHR) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
For the second day in a row, strength in the Technology sector (XLK) was sufficient to offset broadening weakness below the market as funds are shuffled towards the growth bet ahead of what is a common fiscal year-end for mutual funds at the end of October. The S&P 500 Index ended essentially unchanged, holding above the 20-day moving average (~6727). The variable hurdle had kept the short-term trend off of the April lows intact. The 50-day moving average (6622) has so far mitigated a more serious downfall as the pullback that many were hoping for in order to add to risk exposure for the end of the year fails to produce results of significance. While gains at the aggregate level continue, breadth is becoming increasingly poor, leaving a few players in this market to perform the heavy lifting heading into the start of the best six months of the year performance for stocks. The result contributes to our rather unsettled position that we are burdened by. While the segments of the market that we continue to target in our weekly chart books remain correctly dialed in, we have been hesitant to signal the all-clear towards broader risk exposure, as has historically been easy to do at this time of year. October is the time of year when fear/volatility hit a peak and buying into the unease is typically the prudent approach. Last year, the “all-clear” signal was revealed at the start of November and we were subsequently forced to reign in risk around the start of February ahead of the equity market pullback that denied a positive outcome to the best six month trade last year. For now, we continue to lean on our list of candidates in the market that are worthy to Accumulate or Avoid, which continues to show far more ideas worthy to buy than to sell, but advocating to increase portfolio sensitivity to the broader market at this point, aligned with the average start to the best six months of the year performance, is difficult to do. The more ideal entry points for an intermediate-term (multi-month) holding period can be pegged around rising 20-week moving averages, which major market benchmarks are stretched well above. This is not negative, but rather less than ideal to assure that we’re ramping up equity exposure at preferable risk-reward points.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- The headwind currently being imposed against stocks from the US Dollar and when to look for this influence to fade
- The weak trend of shipping volumes in the US, the divergence in the performance of transportation stocks, and Dow Theory.
- The jump in shares of Caterpillar (CAT) at the start of its period of seasonal strength and what it portends to the strength of the Emerging Markets trade ahead
- Fundamental support to the price of Oil as imports show the largest percentage decline on record
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for October 30
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Sentiment on Wednesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.81.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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