Stock Market Outlook for November 5, 2025
A number of signals are indicating risk aversion, contrary to seasonal norms at this time of year.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Health Care ETF (NYSE:RSPH) Seasonal Chart
Viatris Inc. (NASD:VTRS) Seasonal Chart
Invesco Municipal Trust (NYSE:VKQ) Seasonal Chart
BlackBerry Ltd. (NYSE:BB) Seasonal Chart
Mednax, Inc. (NYSE:MD) Seasonal Chart
TFI International Inc. (TSE:TFII.TO) Seasonal Chart
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. (NYSE:TEVA) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks closed lower on Tuesday as profit-taking in the technology sector imposed a burden on the broader market. The S&P 500 Index closed down by 1.17%, gaping below the October 27th upside gap between 6807 and 6843, charting an island reversal in the process. The benchmark is now moving into the subsequent upside gap charted on October 24th between 6749 and 6772, a zone that will be scrutinized closely to determine if the bulls will be as willing to let this span go as they were for the prior range. The 50-day moving average (6654) has so far mitigated a more serious downfall as the pullback that many were hoping for in order to add to risk exposure for the end of the year fails to produce results of significance. While the benchmarks have shown greater evidence of support than resistance, a backdrop that warrants a positive view of the market, breadth is becoming increasingly poor, leaving few players in this market to perform the heavy lifting heading into the start of the best six months of the year performance for stocks. The result contributes to our rather unsettled position that we are burdened by. We have been hesitant to signal the all-clear towards broader risk exposure, as has historically been easy to do at this time of year. October is the time of year when fear/volatility hit a peak and buying into the unease is typically the prudent approach. Last year, the “all-clear” signal was revealed at the start of November and we were subsequently forced to reign in risk around the start of February ahead of the equity market pullback that denied a positive outcome to the best six month trade last year. For now, we continue to lean on our list of candidates in the market that are worthy to Accumulate or Avoid, which continues to show far more ideas worthy to buy than to sell, but advocating to increase portfolio sensitivity to the broader market at this point, aligned with the average start to the best six months of the year performance, is difficult to do. The more ideal entry points for an intermediate-term (multi-month) holding period can be pegged around rising 20-week moving averages, which major market benchmarks are stretched well above. This is not negative, but rather less than ideal to assure that we’re ramping up equity exposure at preferable risk-reward points.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Equal Weight Consumer Discretionary sector carving out a topping pattern, lagging the performance of the market
- Outperformance of Discretionary over Staples breaking down
- Breakdown in the Cryptocurrency market
- Volatility Index
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Sentiment on Tuesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.82.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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