Stock Market Outlook for November 6, 2025
Market bouncing between gaps as tariff-burdened segments rebound.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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iShares Dow Jones U.S. ETF (NYSE:IYY) Seasonal Chart
Okta, Inc. (NASD:OKTA) Seasonal Chart
Global X Uranium ETF (NYSE:URA) Seasonal Chart
VanEck Vectors Pharmaceutical ETF (NASD:PPH) Seasonal Chart
Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp. (NASD:CTSH) Seasonal Chart
iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (NYSE:ITB) Seasonal Chart
iShares MSCI Frontier 100 ETF (AMEX:FM) Seasonal Chart
Par Technology (NYSE:PAR) Seasonal Chart
St Joe Corp. (NYSE:JOE) Seasonal Chart
TransAlta Corp. (TSE:TA.TO) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks closed mildly higher on Wednesday as the market monitored oral arguments from the Supreme Court on the legality of tariffs. The S&P 500 Index closed higher by just less than four-tenths of one percent, filling the downside open gap that was charted on Tuesday; reaction to the upper limit of the gap was apparent at the high of the session around 6829. An island reversal pattern on the chart remains, signalling the potential reversal of the prevailing trend. A subsequent upside gap charted on October 24th between 6749 and 6772 remains a zone that will be scrutinized closely to determine if the bulls will be as willing to let this span go as they were for the prior range. The 50-day moving average (6660) has so far mitigated a more serious downfall as the pullback that many were hoping for in order to add to risk exposure for the end of the year fails to produce results of significance. While the benchmarks have shown greater evidence of support than resistance, a backdrop that warrants a positive view of the market, breadth is becoming increasingly poor, leaving few players in this market to perform the heavy lifting heading into the start of the best six months of the year performance for stocks. The result contributes to our rather unsettled position that we are burdened by. We have been hesitant to signal the all-clear towards broader risk exposure, as has historically been easy to do at this time of year. October is the time of year when fear/volatility hit a peak and buying into the unease is typically the prudent approach. Last year, the “all-clear” signal was revealed at the start of November and we were subsequently forced to reign in risk around the start of February ahead of the equity market pullback that denied a positive outcome to the best six month trade last year. For now, we continue to lean on our list of candidates in the market that are worthy to Accumulate or Avoid, which continues to show far more ideas worthy to buy than to sell, but advocating to increase portfolio sensitivity to the broader market at this point, aligned with the average start to the best six months of the year performance, is difficult to do. The more ideal entry points for an intermediate-term (multi-month) holding period can be pegged around rising 20-week moving averages, which major market benchmarks are stretched well above. This is not negative, but rather less than ideal to assure that we’re ramping up equity exposure at preferable risk-reward points.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- The rebound of tariff-burdened market segments
- The risk to the bond market from the Supreme Court decision and our overall stance on this asset class heading into its offseason
- Focusing on Refiners
- Looking out towards the seasonal trade in the Energy Sector
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Sentiment on Wednesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.84.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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