Stock Market Outlook for November 7, 2025
Mind the gaps, particularly in semiconductors.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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iShares Mortgage Real Estate Capped ETF (NYSE:REM) Seasonal Chart
SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Growth ETF (NYSE:SLYG) Seasonal Chart
Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (NYSE:VTI) Seasonal Chart
iShares Global Timber & Forestry ETF (NASD:WOOD) Seasonal Chart
Magnite, Inc (NASD:MGNI) Seasonal Chart
SPDR FactSet Innovative Technology ETF (AMEX:XITK) Seasonal Chart
iShares Global REIT ETF (AMEX:REET) Seasonal Chart
CNH Industrial NV (NYSE:CNH) Seasonal Chart
Saputo Group, Inc. (TSE:SAP.TO) Seasonal Chart
Boyd Gaming Corp. (NYSE:BYD) Seasonal Chart
Louisiana Pacific Corp. (NYSE:LPX) Seasonal Chart
Vornado Realty Trust (NYSE:VNO) Seasonal Chart
Vanguard FTSE Canadian Capped REIT Index ETF (TSE:VRE.TO) Seasonal Chart
iShares MSCI Europe Financials ETF (NASD:EUFN) Seasonal Chart
iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF (NYSE:IJR) Seasonal Chart
iShares Russell 3000 ETF (NYSE:IWV) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks closed down on Thursday as scrutiny over richly valued Artificial Intelligence stocks continues to grow. The S&P 500 Index closed lower by 1.12%, maintaining Tuesday’s downside gap as resistance and moving below the October 24th gap between 6749 and 6772. An island reversal pattern on the chart has threatened the potential reversal of the prevailing trend, something that the price action this week suggests may be underway. Next up to bat is the 50-day moving average (6665), which has so far mitigated a more serious downfall in the broader market benchmark over the past month. Breadth in the market is becoming increasingly poor, leaving few players in this market to perform the heavy lifting heading into the start of the best six months of the year performance for stocks. The result contributes to our rather unsettled position that we are burdened by. We have been hesitant to signal the all-clear towards broader risk exposure, as has historically been easy to do at this time of year. For now, we continue to lean on our list of candidates in the market that are worthy to Accumulate or Avoid, which continues to show far more ideas worthy to buy than to sell, but advocating to increase portfolio sensitivity to the broader market at this point, aligned with the average start to the best six months of the year performance, is difficult to do. The more ideal entry points for an intermediate-term (multi-month) holding period can be pegged around rising 20-week moving averages, which major market benchmarks are stretched well above. This is not negative, but rather less than ideal to assure that we’re ramping up equity exposure at preferable risk-reward points.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Downdraft in stocks coinciding with the alleviation of recent headwinds
- Beneficiaries should the US Dollar continue to roll over from here
- The key to determine how enthusiastic to be in US equities through the best six months of the year
- Seasonal trade in Natural Gas
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Sentiment on Thursday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.89.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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