Stock Market Outlook for November 14, 2025
With the government shutdown in the US now resolved, focus shifts towards the state of liquidity available to the market, which had tightened rather notably in the past month and a half.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets IMI Index ETF (TSE:XEC.TO) Seasonal Chart
iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF (NYSE:EWT) Seasonal Chart
Abbott Laboratories (NYSE:ABT) Seasonal Chart
Global Ship Lease, Inc. (NYSE:GSL) Seasonal Chart
Federal Agricultural Mortgage (NYSE:AGM) Seasonal Chart
Esco Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:ESE) Seasonal Chart
Becton Dickinson and Co. (NYSE:BDX) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks posted significant declines on Thursday amidst ongoing rotation away from overweight growth/technology allocations and towards this year’s laggards. The S&P 500 Index closed down by 1.66%, failing to find support at the 20-day moving average (6790) and reaching back to the 50-day moving average (6699) that was tested on Friday at the lows of the day. The hourly chart shows an ongoing “twitchiness” that has sprinkled the chart with gaps and another was opened on Thursday. The benchmark gapped back below the November 4th gap between 6809 and 6845, reaching back to and filling Monday’s upside gap between 6730 and 6785. So far, this lower gap is holding and worked to stem the tide of selling pressures on the day. As has been pointed out in our work, there is reason to not expect much of equity market performance at this time of year through the middle of November, but the November 20th date to look to for the start of the next leg higher in the equity market is now just a week away. Using the weakness to ramp up risk exposure in portfolios for the end of year strength is seen as prudent. Downside risks in the very near term continue to be toward the 20-week moving average at 6532. We continue to lean heavily on our list of candidates in the market that are worthy to Accumulate or Avoid, which continues to show far more ideas worthy to buy than to sell.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Small Caps breaking below their 50-day moving average, showing a head-and-shoulders topping pattern
- The liquidity crunch the market is suffering from and when to look for the alleviation of this influence
- The pressure being realized in the Cryptocurrency market
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Sentiment on Thursday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.81.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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