Stock Market Outlook for December 4, 2025
Interest rate optimism providing fuel to segments of the market that are sensitive to the cost of borrowing.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Dynamic iShares Active Global Dividend ETF (TSE:DXG.TO) Seasonal Chart
Sony Group Corporation (NYSE:SONY) Seasonal Chart
Titanium Transportation Group Inc. (TSE:TTNM.TO) Seasonal Chart
AGCO Corp. (NYSE:AGCO) Seasonal Chart
Western Forest Products Inc. (TSE:WEF.TO) Seasonal Chart
Capstone Copper Corp (TSE:CS.TO) Seasonal Chart
Ribbon Communications Inc. (NASD:RBBN) Seasonal Chart
BMO International Dividend ETF (TSE:ZDI.TO) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks gained on Wednesday as a weak jobs report increased hopes that the Fed will continue to cut rates when it meets next week. The S&P 500 Index gained three-tenths of one percent, edging slightly above the bounds of the gap that was originally opened on October 27th around 6830. Previous gap resistance at 6770 continues to be looked to as support. The market has been proving that it is no longer showing greater respect to levels of resistance than to levels of support, at least on an ultra-short-term timescale, but the hurdles overhead are major nuts to crack and require broader participation to definitively break. The major threshold on the upside to scrutinize is, quite obviously, the all-time high at 6920 that was charted at the end of October. The bears continue to contend with positive seasonality for this time of year with gains the norm for market benchmarks in December, but a softer period on the calendar through the first half of December following the strong end of November performance may be sufficient to fuel digestion of recent strength. As we have been emphasizing, the 20-week moving average (now around 6600) has been the desired risk-reward point to adding new risk exposure to portfolios and the large-cap benchmark tested this point two weeks ago. So far, everything is playing out well according to our playbook and our list of candidates in the market that are worthy to Accumulate or Avoid continues to provide ideas on how to position in this market that has become fairly volatile in recent weeks.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- US Vehicle Sales
- The caution that Heavy Truck Sales are providing
- Auto Stocks
- Seasonal trade in Home Builders
- Small-Caps
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Sentiment on Wednesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.85.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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