Stock Market Outlook for December 19, 2025
Inflationary pressures showed significant signs of alleviating in November, but we are preparing portfolios for the normal ramp in prices into the start of the new year.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Nevada Sunrise Metals Corp. (TSXV:NEV.V) Seasonal Chart
Lineage Cell Therapeutics Inc. (AMEX:LCTX) Seasonal Chart
Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (NYSE:VWO) Seasonal Chart
Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. (TSE:SOIL.TO) Seasonal Chart
Popular, Inc. (NASD:BPOP) Seasonal Chart
Tucows Inc. (NASD:TCX) Seasonal Chart
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
The Markets
Blowout earnings from Micron (MU) and indications that inflationary pressures are easing sent stocks higher on Thursday. The S&P 500 Index added nearly eight-tenths of one percent, bouncing from the zone of support presented by the November 10th upside gap between 6729 and 6785. This remains an important zone for the market to hold in order to allow the end of year seasonal positivity to proceed as expected. The October 27th gap is up to bat and reaction to the zone was already observed at the highs of Thursday’s session, emphasizing how pivotal these previous ranges are to the market. Double-top resistance can be pegged around the 6900 level, a negative setup that would be completed by a move towards the November 20th lows around 6530; theoretical downside target of a move below the November bottom would be toward the February of 2025 high around 6150. As we have been stating, it is unlikely that the broader bearish pattern will materialize anything of substance until after the the positive seasonality for stocks at year-end and the weakness that has spilled into the market in recent days may prove to be ideal to deploy any remaining cash for the year-end positivity directly ahead. In the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that we oversee at Castlemoore, we held a small cash balance from the profits that were booked in the seasonal trade in Natural Gas last week and we deployed those funds into the equity market on Thursday. Themes in our chart books to either Accumulate or Avoid continue to look setup well for allocation into the end of 2025 and early 2026, but we are scrutinizing the technicals closely to determine if any changes are warranted before the year is complete.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Market & Technical Takeaways
- Inflation & Fed Takeaways
- Energy & Commodity Implications
- Food & Agriculture
- Core Inflation & Housing
- Sector-Specific Takeaways
- Data Quality Caution
- Portfolio Strategy Implications and the action we are taking in the Super Simple Seasonal Portfolio
- The start of the optimal holding period for Emerging Markets
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Sentiment on Thursday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.85.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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