Stock Market Outlook for February 23, 2026
The Manufacturing Renaissance Gains Steam—But Housing Waves a Warning Flag
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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First Solar Inc. (NASD:FSLR) Seasonal Chart
BMO Global Infrastructure Index ETF (TSE:ZGI.TO) Seasonal Chart
iShares U.S. Utilities ETF (NYSE:IDU) Seasonal Chart
ENI S.P.A. (NYSE:E) Seasonal Chart
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
The Markets
Stocks moved higher on Friday as traders reacted positively to the US Supreme Court ruling that struck down tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. The S&P 500 Index gained nearly seven-tenths of one percent, once again intersecting a point of horizontal resistance at 6900. A slight negative skew remains with highs fixed around 7,000 and lower-lows recorded since the year began. Nothing extreme has developed, yet, and the benchmark remains within arm’s reach of the all-time high charted a few weeks ago. Threats remain for a downside resolution to 6730, or the mid-December lows, particularly through the period of seasonal weakness for stocks that is average at this time of year. The character of the market seems to have shifted where levels of resistance (at least on this tech heavy benchmark) are holding greater weight than levels of support. Looking to trim equity exposure in this backdrop, until resolved, has become prudent, pulling back the elevated levels of exposure that were held through the Santa Claus rally period and into the first month of the year, bracing for the kind of volatility that is average through the next couple of weeks. In the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that we manage for clients at CastleMoore, we have taken action to align with the risks that are creeping into the market ahead of this average mid-February peak in stocks, but, we have not been enticed, yet, to abandon our pro-cyclical and commodity oriented stance that has been flourishing this year. Themes in our chart books to either Accumulate or Avoid continue to gear towards the trends that are working and intact.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Market Reaction & Technical Setup
- Portfolio Strategy: Barbell Approach
- Emerging Markets Surge
- Small Caps Losing Their Seasonal Edge
- Manufacturing Renaissance Strengthens
- Clear Economic Bifurcation
- Housing: Mixed Signals, Underlying Strain
- Big Picture Themes
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Sentiment on Friday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended slightly bullish at 0.91.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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