The summer rally period continues to evolve.

Stock Market Outlook for July 7, 2026

The summer rally period continues to evolve.

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

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Stock Highlight:

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:CF) Seasonal Chart

Optimal holding period from July 7th to October 6th
The stock is presently bouncing from the end of February upside gap (~$100) that coincided with the onset of the conflict in Iran; Stop loss appropriate at $100
Revenue and Net Income have shown solid year-over-year gains and the rise in grain commodity prices amidst drought conditions in the US and Europe present a further tailwind to agriculture commodity stocks, like this.

Paychex, Inc. (NASD:PAYX) Seasonal Chart

JOYY Inc. (NASD:JOYY) Seasonal Chart

American Financial Group Inc (NYSE:AFGC) Seasonal Chart

Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.

The Markets

The summer rally period continues to evolve, pulling investors back into stocks following the normal June consolidation/mean reversion. The S&P 500 Index added around seven-tenths of one percent, gaping above declining trendline resistance that had capped the market momentum through the month of June around 7500. The benchmark has shown struggle below the June high around 7600 in a pattern that has all the hallmarks of consolidation of early year strength rather than a trend shift, suggesting the fuel remains present to see a test/breakout through this mid-year period of strength that is upon us. Daily momentum indicators have curled higher, triggering near-term buy signals that align nicely with the start of the summer rally phase; MACD crossed above its signal line in what is a fresh buy signal following the sell trigger that was recorded in the middle of May. In the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that we manage for clients at CastleMoore, we took off our volatility hedges prior to last week and we put cash to work. Further transactions were executed at the start of last week to increase beta of the portfolio further to setup for this risk-on time of the year and we are benefiting. Following a first half performance in which we were well ahead of not just our own benchmark, but all major equity benchmarks in the market, we are off to a strong start in this second half of the year. Subscribers can view what we are targeting in our list of market segments to either Accumulate or Avoid.

Want to know which areas of the market to buy or sell? Our Weekly Chart Books have just been updated, providing a clear Accumulate, Avoid, or Neutral rating for currencies, cryptocurrencies, commodities, broad markets, and subsectors/industries of the market. Subscribers can login and click on the relevant links to access.

Currencies
Cryptocurrencies
Commodities
Major Benchmarks
Sub-sectors / Industries
ETFs: Bonds | Commodities | Equity Markets | Industries | Sectors

Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:

Our weekly chart books update, along with our list of all segments of the market to either Accumulate or Avoid

Other Notes

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Sentiment on Monday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.80.