Stock Market Outlook for August 21, 2026
Manufacturers are extremely optimistic and this has important implications for portfolio positioning.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Stock Highlight: |
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iShares S&P/TSX Global Base Metals Index ETF (TSE:XBM.TO) Seasonal Chart |
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BMO MSCI Canada Value Index ETF (TSE:ZVC.TO) Seasonal Chart
Vanguard U.S. Value Factor ETF (AMEX:VFVA) Seasonal Chart
iShares S&P U.S. Mid-Cap Index ETF (CAD-Hedged) (TSE:XMH.TO) Seasonal Chart
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:LW) Seasonal Chart
iShares Russell 2000 Value ETF (NYSE:IWN) Seasonal Chart
WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund (NYSE:DXJ) Seasonal Chart
Blackrock Silver Corp. (TSXV:BRC.V) Seasonal Chart
Albemarle Corp. (NYSE:ALB) Seasonal Chart
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
The Markets
Ongoing volatility in the treasury bond market, a further rise in the price of energy commodities, and a sharp negative reaction to earnings from Walmart (WMT) weighed on stocks during the Thursday session. The S&P 500 Index slipped by nearly nine-tenths of one percent, reaching back to the upper limit of the consolidation span between 7250 and 7620 that the benchmark broke out from in recent weeks; previous resistance at this upper threshold is being looked to as support. A short-term bull-flag pattern continues to be charted, suggesting further upside to be expected, although the patterns have suggest that retracement towards aforementioned previous resistance at 7620 will be fulfilled first. The benchmark remains above 20 and 50-day moving averages (~7533), keeping the ball in the bulls court heading through the middle of August. Daily momentum indicators have started to roll over, but they are retaining characteristics of a bullish trend above their middle lines. In the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that we manage for clients at CastleMoore, we continue to hold an elevated exposure to stocks, aligning with the optimism that the manufacturing economy is expressing. The period of volatility in the equity market through the weeks ahead could start to impose some erratic results (as is presently being seen), but there is some leeway on the calendar before the peak period of weakness rolls around starting in the middle of September. Subscribers can view what we are targeting in our list of market segments to either Accumulate or Avoid.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- VIX perking up
- Manufacturer optimism
- Weekly Jobless Claims and the health of the labor market
- The Energy Sector
- Weak trend of demand for Gasoline
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Sentiment on Thursday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.84.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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