Stock Market Outlook for September 2, 2026
Oil and energy stocks slated to remain abnormally supported heading into the fall, threatening upside pressures in the cost of borrowing.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Stock Highlight: |
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National HealthCare Corp. (AMEX:NHC) Seasonal Chart |
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BMO MSCI USA Value Index ETF (TSE:ZVU.TO) Seasonal Chart
Hull Tactical US ETF (AMEX:HTUS) Seasonal Chart
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ex China ETF (NASD:EMXC) Seasonal Chart
Vanguard Value ETF (NYSE:VTV) Seasonal Chart
WisdomTree Total Dividend Fund (NYSE:DTD) Seasonal Chart
BMO US High Dividend Covered Call ETF (TSE:ZWH.TO) Seasonal Chart
CME Group Inc. (NASD:CME) Seasonal Chart
Methode Electronics, Inc. (NYSE:MEI) Seasonal Chart
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
Note: Due to a competing obligation on Wednesday (September 2nd), our next report will be provided on Thursday.
The Markets
A jump in the cost of borrowing amidst further upside pressures in the price of Oil had traders selling stocks during the first session of September. The S&P 500 Index dropped by seven-tenths of one percent, reaching back to the upper limit of the prior consolidation span between 7250 and 7620 that the benchmark broke out from at the start of August. A short-term bull-flag pattern remains intact, suggesting further upside to be expected, but we are getting into some levels that need to hold in order for the bullish setup to remain valid. Next level of support below 7620 can be pegged at the mid-July highs around 7575, a break of which would add some doubt to a bullish outcome through the first half of September. The 20-day moving average (7711) has been taken out and the 50-day moving average (7570) is now being looked towards. While levels of support have started to crack, a topping pattern of substance remains absent, warranting a bullish tilt, for now, heading into what is often a volatile period for equity performance in the month of September. In the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that we manage for clients at CastleMoore, we continue to hold an elevated exposure to stocks, aligning with the optimism that the manufacturing economy is expressing. The period of volatility in the equity market is starting to impose some erratic results, but there is some leeway on the calendar before the peak period of weakness rolls around starting in the middle of September. Subscribers can view what we are targeting in our list of market segments to either Accumulate or Avoid.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Oil slated to remain abnormally supported into the fall
- Energy stocks
- Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and the investment implications within
- The high cost of borrowing and the toll it is taking on the economy
- US Construction Spending
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for September 2
Sentiment on Tuesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended close to neutral at 0.98.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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