Stock Market Outlook for October 16, 2026
Rates and the dollar pulling back from defined levels of resistance, allowing stocks to rally, but the prevailing headwinds have not been eliminated.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Brookfield Infrastructure Corp (TSE:BIPC.TO) Seasonal Chart
Allient Inc. (NASD:ALNT) Seasonal Chart
Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Value ETF (NYSE:SCHV) Seasonal Chart
Vericel Corp. (NASD:VCEL) Seasonal Chart
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
The Markets
Stocks rebounded from yesterday’s selloff as the rotation in the market continues, presently away from Technology and into those segments that have been sold off since August amidst the rise in interest rates. The S&P 500 Index ended higher by a third of one percent, bouncing from short-term rising trend channel support that has promoted the recent path of higher-highs and higher-lows in the past month. After Wednesday’s decline, the benchmark remains below the upper limit of the range that it has been in since August between 7620 and 7800. The daily chart shows support at the 50 and 100-day moving averages, a violation of which would be required to deem a shift of trajectory. While beyond what has historically been the weakest two-week stretch of the year at the end of September, volatility in the market tends to remain heightened into the month of October, therefore caution has been appropriate, but we have been pushing back against the negativity that is typical for this timeframe (see our September 18th report). We continue to examine what may be the appropriate stance in equity positioning for the remainder of the month of October, but we have not received the cues to broadly de-risk in portfolios, yet (although we have been inclined to raise a little bit of cash). Subscribers can stay on top of our thinking and what we are watching in our regular reports, as well as view what we are targeting in our list of market segments to either Accumulate or Avoid.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Dollar and Rate pullback and what we see moving forward
- Bond prices and the logical point of resistance overhead
- US Producer Prices
- US Retail Sales and the investment implications within
- The change in Retail Inventories
- Additional Thoughts
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for October 16
Sentiment on Thursday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.79.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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