Stock Market Outlook for December 23, 2022

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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iShares Asia 50 ETF (NASD:AIA) Seasonal Chart

BlackRock Energy and Resources Trust (NYSE:BGR) Seasonal Chart

Global X NASDAQ China Technology ETF (AMEX:CHIC) Seasonal Chart

SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:GLD) Seasonal Chart

John Hancock Hedged Equity & Income Fund (NYSE:HEQ) Seasonal Chart

iShares MSCI Thailand Capped ETF (NYSE:THD) Seasonal Chart

Sprott Inc. (NYSE:SII) Seasonal Chart

iShares Silver Bullion ETF (TSE:SVR/C.TO) Seasonal Chart

Gilead Sciences, Inc. (NASD:GILD) Seasonal Chart

New Gold Inc. (TSE:NGD.TO) Seasonal Chart

WisdomTree Japan SmallCap Dividend Fund (NYSE:DFJ) Seasonal Chart

American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (NYSE:AEO) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
The grinches appear to be interjecting with the traditional holiday positivity that surrounds this time of year, sending stocks sharply lower during the Thursday session. The S&P 500 Index closed with a loss of 1.45%, erasing the prior days gains and confirming the recently broken 50-day moving average and previous horizontal support at 3900 as a point of resistance. The more formidable threat remains long-term declining trendline resistance overhead, just above 4000, which has capped each rally attempt this year and continues to show signs of doing so again following the October/November strength. The technicals certainly appear threatening and there is very little on the fundamental side that we can point to as reason to be optimistic, other than the fact that our coincident indication of economic activity has yet to trigger a recession call, yet. Still, at this time of year, it is often a fools errand to bet against the market during the weeks that surround the end of year holidays given the positivity that typically gives reprieve to selling pressures, even during the most negative years (eg. 2001, 2002, and 2009). A long lower-wick candlestick charted during the Thursday session and indications of short-term waning downside momentum provides hints that the bearish conviction heading into the holidays is not as strong as what sentiment suggests, which could still allow for that end of year lift in equity prices. November’s upside gap between 3770 and 3860 continues to be viewed as the logical zone to support this end of year gyration.
Sentiment on Thursday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bearish at 1.26.Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
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- Extreme bearish sentiment in the market
- Our next prediction of what to expect of the market in the year ahead
- Weekly jobless claims and the health of the labor market
- The state of petroleum supply and demand in the US
- Natural gas stockpiles and our trade in the commodity that is up almost 50% in just the past few days

- No significant earnings scheduled for today
S&P 500 Index


TSE Composite


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