Stock Market Outlook for January 6, 2025
Will the colder than average temperatures forecast for January put the freeze on economic activity?
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Futu Holdings Ltd. (NASD:FUTU) Seasonal Chart
Universal Health Services – Class B (NYSE:UHS) Seasonal Chart
Integra LifeSciences Holdings Corp. (NASD:IART) Seasonal Chart
Tennessee Valley Authorit (NYSE:TVC) Seasonal Chart
Invesco S&P/TSX Composite Low Volatility Index ETF (TSE:TLV.TO) Seasonal Chart
Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF (NYSE:VCR) Seasonal Chart
AmeriServ Financial, Inc. (NASD:ASRV) Seasonal Chart
ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (NYSE:VIXY) Seasonal Chart
Invesco Defensive Equity ETF (NYSE:POWA) Seasonal Chart
Smith AO Corp. (NYSE:AOS) Seasonal Chart
Workday, Inc. (NASD:WDAY) Seasonal Chart
ONE Gas Inc. (NYSE:OGS) Seasonal Chart
Arcus Biosciences, Inc. (NYSE:RCUS) Seasonal Chart
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (NYSE:CMG) Seasonal Chart
Imax Corp. (NYSE:IMAX) Seasonal Chart
Marten Transport, Ltd. (NASD:MRTN) Seasonal Chart
Cineplex Inc. (TSE:CGX.TO) Seasonal Chart
Tractor Supply Co. (NASD:TSCO) Seasonal Chart
The Markets
Stocks rebounded on Friday as the small traders that have been having a large influence on market gyrstations around the end of year holidays stepped out of the way before the institutional money managers return to their desks on Monday. The S&P 500 Index ended up by 1.26% in the second session of 2025, continuing to hover around the 50-day moving average (5944), a rather neutral position for the intermediate-term trend. The benchmark remains above the previous level of horizontal support at the open gap charted following the US Election at 5850. While we continue to rely on this point as the propping level for the strength that is normal at the very start of the year, there is still much to be contemplated pertaining to the near-term trend given the sharply negative candlesticks charted during the last two hours of trade a couple of weeks ago following the FOMC announcement. If you recall, it is within the one-day range of that volatile Wednesday session that we have expected the Santa Claus rally period to trade within and this is certainly proving to be the case. Zooming out, a head-and-shoulders topping pattern can be picked out based on the declines produced over the past six sessions, but, given the low volume environment that we are within during this holiday timeframe, the significance of this topping setup is certainly diminished. The bearish pattern proposes a downside target of 5670, which was the level of resistance from this summer’s high. Neckline support at 5850 would have to be definitively broken, first, to achieve the downside potential that the pattern suggests. More important is the resistance that is being derived at the 20-day moving average, sufficient to raise concern. Should major moving averages increasingly derive points of resistance, reason to conclude the shift of trend would be provided. Our list of candidates in the market to Accumulate and to Avoid remains appropriately positioned at this seasonally strong time of year, but our Avoid list has been growing in recent weeks given the fading of the election euphoria in the market.
Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:
- Weekly look at the large-cap benchmark
- The end of the traditional Santa Claus Rally period and what the failed result may forecast for the market performance ahead
- The change in Natural Gas inventories
- Technicals of Natural Gas and when the more appropriate time to be Accumulators of the commodity may be presented
- Looking at the prospect of colder than average temperatures weighing on economic performance this winter
- The seasonal rise in Agriculture commodities through the winter season
- Wholesale Sales of Farm Product Raw Materials seeing a jolt in October
Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for January 6
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Sentiment on Friday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.84.
Just Released…
Our monthly report for January is out, providing you with everything that you need to know to navigate the market through the month(s) ahead.
Highlights in this report include:
- Equity market tendencies in the month of January
- Beware the US Dollar
- Post-election year influence on the US Dollar
- Post-Election Tendency for stocks
- Low return, low volatility during post election years
- Yields during post election years
- One coincident indicator of a market downfall has been triggered, but the conditions are likely not in place to fuel a dramatic decline in prices
- Drill Baby Drill
- Energy sector
- Consumer Holiday Ho Hum
- Too much product to sell this holiday season
- Discretionary consumer momentum the weakest it has ever been for November
- Industrial Production
- Our list of all segments of the market to either Accumulate or Avoid, along with relevant ETFs
- Positioning for the months ahead
- Sector Reviews and Ratings
- Stocks that have Frequently Gained in the Month of January
- Notable Stocks and ETFs Entering their Period of Strength in January
Subscribers can look for this 114-page report in their inbox and in the report archive.
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Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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